Does The Rise In Target Stock Change Anything? Trefis Team Thu, November 12, 2026 at 8:09 AM EST 3 min read TGT +0.02% WMT +0.22% ^GSPC -0.38% HD +0.27% KR +0.40% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
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Target (TGT) stock rose 86.2% over the twelve months to November 11, 2026. Walmart stock rose 22.5% over the same period, Costco Wholesale 19.7% and Amazon.com 6.9%, so Target's rise was far more than a lift for big retailers as a group. Including dividends, Target returned 87.9%, while the S&P 500 returned 12.8%. Inside that year, on August 19, 2026, management raised its full-year forecasts for sales and earnings. The price appears to assume Target's business has turned, and for that Target has to keep drawing more shoppers and earn more even without its tariff refunds. So are more shoppers really coming to Target?
More Shoppers Are Coming To Target
So far, yes. Target's comparable sales rose 3.8% from a year earlier in the quarter ended August 1, 2026. Management said the gain came from more visits, noting that traffic climbed 3.6% while the average purchase stayed about flat.
That growth is new. Revenue rose 5.3% in that quarter, after rising 6.7% in the quarter before it. Both followed a 1.5% fall in the quarter ended January 31, 2026.
Most Of Target's Profit Jump Came From A Refund
Target is earning more on its own, but only a little more. In the quarter ended August 1, 2026, its operating margin was 9.6%, compared with 5.2% in the same quarter a year earlier. Management said tariff refunds added 3.7 percentage points to that margin, providing a $994 million pretax benefit that Target booked as lower cost of sales.
Excluding the refunds, management put the margin about 70 basis points above a year earlier. The raised full-year earnings forecast of $9.90 to $10.90 a share includes the refund booked during that quarter, which management said added $1.65 a share to earnings. Management expects some more refunds, but called earnings excluding them the better measure of the business.
Target Sells No More Than It Did In 2022
The rise has not changed the size of Target's business. Revenue over the twelve months ended August 1, 2026 was $108 billion, the same as in the twelve months ended July 30, 2022.
Two large categories still lag. Sales of home furnishings and décor fell 6.5% in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. On the August call, management said it was not satisfied with home and apparel, where growth was only flattish. Calling them high-margin categories, management said the work will continue into 2027 and beyond.
Target trades at 16.8 times its last twelve months of earnings, against 21.9 for the S&P 500. Those twelve months include the $1.65 a share refund, so the earnings behind that multiple are smaller than they look. If the extra shoppers fade, Target is back to the flat sales it has shown since 2022.
For now, the extra shoppers are showing up, while profit without the refunds has improved only a little. Target is expected to report in November 2026. Revenue growth from a year earlier and the operating margin excluding tariff refunds are the figures to watch then.
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