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Well, my break from betting the NBA didn't last long as I'm back at it with tonight's Eastern Conference Game 5 between the Cavs and Pistons. It has not been a great second round of the NBA Playoffs for me, so if you want to fade, I don't blame you, but I do feel pretty good about the play.
The Cleveland Cavaliers went back home and did exactly what they needed to do in order to preserve any hopes of them advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
After dropping the first two games in the series, they were able to grab the two home games in Cleveland. Now, they need to do something they have yet to do in the playoffs — win a road game. The team was nine games above .500 on the road in the regular season, so it isn't like they can't win as a visitor.
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Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham drives to the basket on Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell in Game 1 of their second-round series of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena in Michigan. (Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images)
The Cavs have beaten the Pistons on the road this year, early in the season, but whatever is causing them issues in the postseason has prevented them from winning. Part of it is that they can't seem to close out games. James Harden and Donovan Mitchell are both really good individual players, but neither seems to want to take over close games in this postseason.
The Detroit Pistons are not too pleased with how they've been officiated. However, there really aren't any teams that I'd say are happy with the way they've had games called this postseason. Unlike what I've said about the Lakers, the Pistons may have a legitimate gripe. In Game 4 alone, the Cavs shot 34 free throws compared to just 12 for Detroit. Mitchell shot more (15) than the entire Pistons roster. It was closer in Game 3, but the Cavs still had 28 attempts compared to the Pistons' 22.
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Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell drives to the basket on Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham at Rocket Arena in Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
Again, you can make a case about who is driving the ball more, but it would be hard to see that one team is fouling that much more than the other. Still, even with that disparity in Game 4, it took a historic performance from Mitchell and the free throws to give the Cavs a win. The Pistons still only lost by nine points.
The squeaky wheel seems to get the grease. That seems to be the case for most sports. If a team complains about fouls, and there is reasonable legitimacy, as there is here, I tend to see them get a more favorable whistle the next game.
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Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham defends Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell at Little Caesars Arena in Michigan. (David Reginek/Imagn Images)
We've already seen the struggles of the Cavs on the road, but this series could legitimately be a sweep for either team, or tied (as it is). It is about who is closing the games out best during the stretch. The games have been a bit lower scoring, but I expect the clock to stop more here with more free throws for the Pistons, and still around 20 for the Cavs. This game should go over the 211.5 now that both offenses are comfortable. Mitchell also may have found his groove, which will lead to more scoring as well. Back the over.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
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