Simple. As long as the team bus arrives on time.
That’s a joke, but it’s also deeply-rooted in truth.
Because if the Thunder simply show up as themselves—not some overcaffeinated version trying too hard or an overcautious one afraid of the moment—this series will be over quickly.
The Lakers had to find a new identity in the postseason without their MVP Luka Doncic.
OKC are the reigning NBA champions, and a 64-win machine that crushed anything in their path during the regular season. They chewed through the Suns in the first round like it was a warmup drill at practice.
Yes, the Lakers are gritty and resilient, they’re also older, thinner, and injured.
So when it comes to what OKC needs to do to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the second straight season, let’s not overcomplicate it.
All the Thunder need to do to win this series is do exactly what they’ve been doing for the last two years.
That starts on defense where the Thunder are already the best in the league.
OKC has a backline eraser in Chet Holmgren, who finished second for NBA Defensive Player of the Year this season. Holmgren doesn’t just block shots, he erases them entirely. The Rockets didn’t have Steven Adams in their first-round series so LeBron James and the Lakers were able to get to the paint, especially when their perimeter shots were falling. Holmgren takes that away from Los Angeles.
The Thunder are also the second-best team in the NBA at forcing turnovers. The Lakers are vulnerable with the ball. That’s a recipe for disaster. The Thunder can break this series open simply by continuing to be surgical in their defensive ball pressure. Anticipate the passing lanes and have active hands. Turn mistakes into quick transition points.
The second thing the Thunder need to do to beat the Lakers is pretty obvious: don’t let LeBron beat you.
At 41 years old, LeBron is still brilliant and capable of dominating a game, but without Doncic beside him, it makes it easier to hone in on him defensively.
This is where guys like Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso will earn their money. Nobody will be able to stop LeBron completely, but the Thunder plan to use all three of their versatile and aggressive defenders to disrupt him. Expect OKC to throw length and multiple bodies at him. To turn him into a passer and pressure him into making mistakes.
Lakers guard Marcus Smart said last week, “pressure bursts pipes, but also makes diamonds.”
The Thunder’s pressure plans on bursting the Lakers and creating a flood. That flood will lead to transition offense where reigning MVP Shai Gilegous-Alexander thrives. Offensively, OKC doesn’t need a game plan to beat the Lakers. SGA is the game plan.
The Lakers will not be able to replicate his pace or stop his herky-jerky rhythm on offense. He can attack the basket, pull up from midrange, or drain a dagger three in your face. The Thunder just need to let him operate in space and the Lakers defenders will look like they’re caught in a windstorm.
“He’s very professional at putting the ball in the basket,” said Lakers guard Austin Reaves of SGA. “He’s good at all three levels. He also shoots a lot of free throws. When you do that at a high-efficiency, it’s going to be tough to stop him.”
Thankfully for the Thunder, even if they do stop him, others can beat you.
Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein bring an interior toughness that could allow OKC to dominate the paint. Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Lou Dort, and Isaiah Joe can all beat you from beyond the arc. Depth isn’t just a luxury for the Thunder — it’s a weapon.
If the Thunder have a weakness it’s that they allow a lot of three-pointers. The Lakers proved in their four wins over the Rockets that when they’re hot from three, they can shoot you out of a series. That’s the one area the Thunder can’t get beat at.
They need to contest without fouling and close out under control. Two things they are already excellent at. The Lakers shot 36% from three during the regular season. Keep them below their average and OKC will be just fine.
Entering Game 1 on Tuesday, the Thunder are the more rested team. They’ve had exactly a week off between games. Against the oldest team still standing in the playoffs, that matters. OKC needs to punch early and set the tone in Game 1. Remind everyone why they are the reigning champs and turn the Paycom Center into a storm the Lakers can’t escape.
Which brings us back to the beginning. The Thunder just need to show up and play their game.
Do that, and this series doesn’t stretch into drama.
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