Leandro Trossard of Arsenal dribbling by Nahuel Molina of Atletico Madrid. Getty Images Arsenal and Atletico Madrid drew, 1-1, in the first leg of their Champions League semifinal at the Metropolitano Stadium last week, meaning it’s all to play for on Tuesday.
Whoever wins on Tuesday will advance to the final to take on the winner of Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain in Budapest on May 30.
The betting market believes Arsenal is the likelier winner, as the Gunners are -334 favorites to advance and -154 to win Tuesday’s semifinal within 90 minutes.
The first leg of this fixture was filled with controversy, but the most important note was that Atletico Madrid was able to unlock Arsenal’s rigid defense.
Los Colchoneros scored one goal from the penalty spot, but they created 2.21 expected goals, three big scoring chances, and took 18 shots. Those are encouraging numbers against arguably the best defensive side in Europe.
Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone. REUTERS Of course, you can also look at those numbers and say it was a missed opportunity for Atleti, but it’s not like this was an outlier performance. Diego Simeone’s side has been creating plenty of scoring chances all season, and they’ve been especially rambunctious in the knockout stages of the Champions League.
Carrying that form on the road at Arsenal will not be easy, but this could be a case where being the home team isn’t much of an advantage.
Famously, Arsenal have played the most UEFA Champions League (formerly the European Cup) games without winning the competition at 223, and they’re in danger of choking away the Premier League, so the atmosphere at the Emirates will be tense, rather than intimidating.
For all of the impressive things Mikel Arteta’s side have pulled off under his reign, they do tend to come up short in the big moments, and that will be on the mind of every Gunner in the stands on Tuesday.
With Simeone, a master of the dark arts in knockout soccer, on the other sideline, I like the value on Atleti to advance to the finals.
The play: Atletico Madrid to advance (+240, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
