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The Cleveland Cavaliers (2-0) and Toronto Raptors (0-2) head north of the border for Game 3 of their first-round 2026 NBA Playoff series Thursday. Tip-off at the Scotiabank Arena is 8 p.m. ET and will air on Amazon Prime.
Toronto needs this game to avoid a historically insurmountable 3-0 deficit. Cleveland won and covered the first two games of the series: 126-113 in Game 1 and 115-105 in Game 2.
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Cavaliers All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have torn the Raptors apart in the first two games. Mitchell is averaging 31.0 points per game (PPG) on 55.8% shooting, and Harden is adding 25.0 PPG on 53.1% shooting.
Cleveland Cavaliers All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and James Harden talk during Game 2 in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs vs. the Toronto Raptors at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Ohio. (David Dermer/Imagn Images)
The Raptors have gotten good games from forwards Scottie Barnes (averaging 23.5 PPG) and R.J. Barrett (scoring 23.0 PPG). But their regular-season leading scorer, Brandon Ingram, has been awful, putting up just 12.0 PPG on 33.3% so far this series.
Given that Cleveland smacked Toronto in Games 1-2, doesn't "Cavaliers -3.5" feel like a trap line? I mean, the Cavs only need to win by 4+ points to cover when they've won the first two games by double digits. That said, the "Raptors +3.5" almost has to be a contrarian play.
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Cleveland Cavaliers' James Harden defends Toronto Raptors forward Brandon Ingram in Game 2 in the Eastern Conference First Round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena in Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Furthermore, it's not all bad for Toronto because it's splitting the "four factors" with Cleveland. The Raptors need Cavaliers SF Max Strus, Mitchell, and Harden to cool off a bit, but players typically shoot worse on the road.
Toronto Raptors forward Brandon Ingram gets a reverse layup vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 of their first-round series in the 2026 Eastern Conference Playoffs at Rocket Arena. (David Dermer/Imagn Images)
Speaking of which, I'm expecting Ingram to have a bounce-back game at home, where he plays much better. Ingram averages nearly four points per game at home and shoots better from everywhere on the floor.
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Evan Mobley is Cleveland’s only good defensive starter, and no other Cavalier besides him can shut down Ingram. If the Raptors do a better job of getting him one-on-one against Harden and Mitchell, Ingram will get going, and Toronto can get back in this series.
Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes drives on Cleveland Cavaliers big Evan Mobley during the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena. (David Dermer-Imagn Images)
Raptors starting PG Immanuel Quickley has been injured for the first two games of this series and is "questionable" for Game 3. I'm banking on Quickley returning Thursday because it's "all hands on deck" for Toronto. He averaged 16.5 PPG and 5.9 assists during the regular season.
Ultimately, the Cavs aren't that much better than the Raptors, and won't go up 3-0, which is basically a sweep. Or maybe Cleveland is, and Toronto still covers the spread.
Prediction: Raptors 113, Cavaliers 108
Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.
Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru.
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