The latest projection is 0.1 percentage lower than January’s estimate but higher than October’s
2-MIN READ2-MINRalph JenningsPublished: 9:00pm, 14 Apr 2026The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast, including for China, citing shocks from the US-Israeli war in Iran.In its flagship World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, the IMF projected worldwide gross domestic product growth at 3.1 per cent this year, down 0.2 percentage points from its January estimate.
China – the world’s second-largest economy – is now expected to expand by 4.4 per cent this year. That would miss the IMF’s January estimate by 0.1 percentage points as the country grapples with a slowing domestic economy and the fallout from the Iran war. Beijing’s official growth target is set at 4.5 to 5 per cent.
Chinese growth would be constrained by weak domestic activity – especially in the housing sector – which lags behind exports, according to the Washington-based fund.
“Economies around the world face repercussions through the direct impact of higher commodity prices, indirect second-order effects on inflation expectations – which tend to be especially sensitive to energy and food prices – and amplification effects coming from risk-off sentiment in financial markets,” the outlook said.
Even so, the IMF’s 4.4 per cent forecast for China was still higher than October’s projection, reflecting lower US tariff rates on Chinese imports and Beijing’s stimulus measures. Those drivers, it said, would “offset the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict”.
