It's up to President Trump to make sure Iran's short-term win doesn't become a lasting strategic victory, Jack Keane writes. AP Iran got exactly what it wanted out of the cease-fire agreement announced Tuesday night.
Now it’s up to President Donald Trump to make sure the regime’s short-term win doesn’t become a lasting strategic victory.
When Trump ordered a halt to the US air assault on Iran, American and Israeli forces were perhaps 10 days to two weeks away from wiping out Iran’s remaining ballistic missile launchers, underground storage sites, military production facilities and related non-defense industries.
Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz with one objective in mind: stopping the war with a remnant of its military might intact.
It is desperate to demonstrate to the world, and especially to its Gulf neighbors, that despite all the kinetic damage it’s sustained, it still maintains control, power, and influence in the region.
In that, Iran has succeeded because it is still in control of the strait as the IRGC Navy is approving all ships moving through — and, of course, can shut it down again at will.
The other Gulf nations understand the cease-fire means their economies are vulnerable to Tehran’s direct influence.
The White House hopes to ease gas prices further and boost the stock market while Iran tramples on international law to do so: Under the customary law of the sea, the Strait of Hormuz is an international passage that must remain free to all.
Nonetheless, Trump still has significant leverage by imposing a two-week deadline to achieve a deal, or combat operations will resume at an accelerated pace.
However, the regime likely has a different plan: drag out negotiations beyond the two weeks to extend the cease-fire.
It has published an incredible 10-point list of demands — not a single one of which the US can agree to — and reports indicate that the White House has rightly trashed it.
While we don’t know exactly what the many points of the White House deal truly are, what has appeared in media reports appears essential to establish a foolproof deal with verification: no remaining nuclear capability, restrictions on numbers and range of ballistic missiles, and no support to proxies, to name a few.
And now, equally important as the nuclear issue is the opening of the Strait to free navigation.
But the Iranians are very good at stringing American negotiators along, and they’ve done it for decades.
They see their power as generational, and they know how to deal with us — they’re clever at it.
Behind the scenes, they’re likely telling US negotiators that they’ll agree to something quite different from their 10 points, dangling promises of genuine negotiation.
But they likely have no intention of ever agreeing to our conditions.
The idea that these guys are less radical than the pre-war leadership is just not true — and we have to be clear-eyed about that reality.
Indeed, it appears the IRGC under Mojtaba Vahedi’s leadership is more dominant than ever, with stark reminders of the extraordinary influence of Qasem Soleimani.
They fundamentally believe they can absorb as much damage as we can dish out, and that as long as they survive, they will eventually be able to recover and rebuild.
And they may be right; they are counting on the White House no longer having the will to resume this fight.
So they will likely drag their feet at the negotiating table to justify extending the cease-fire, a week or two at a time.
They’ll let oil prices ease, betting that this president won’t be willing to risk bringing back that economic pain.
But a negotiation deadline with a date certain, and the threat of resuming combat operations hanging over the negotiating table, regains much-needed leverage.
Iran must accept all of the US conditions that the president has laid out, or the bombing resumes and does so by the time the two weeks are up — no extensions.
I have confidence in this president — he’s a businessman; he’s not going to make a bad deal.
And if we must escalate the fight, the United States has an ace up its sleeve: Kharg Island.
Iran’s massive oil processing installation is its No. 1 strategic asset, and therefore our No. 1 strategic target. Kharg Island represents over 90 % of Iran’s oil distribution, 60% of its revenue, and 50% of the budget.
If the war resumes and after we degrade Iran’s remaining military assets sufficiently, the US military could choose to occupy Kharg — or to destroy it.
Alternatively, the US Navy could set up a blockade, shutting down Tehran’s export lifeline.
If we preserve Kharg’s infrastructure but take physical control, we’d have a chokehold over Iran’s oil and its economy.
That’s the ultimate leverage we’d need to seize its “nuclear dust,” or stores of enriched uranium, and to eliminate its enrichment facilities.
On the other hand, if we destroy Kharg, Iran would face total economic collapse — creating a pathway for eventual regime change.
The president’s negotiators are no doubt telling him we’re close to a genuine, good-faith agreement with Iran.
But 47 years of Iranian history advise that they’re not going to make any such deal.
They’re likely just playing us, exactly as they’ve done before.
This time, our businessman president won’t let them get away with it.
He has brought us to this historical inflection point with the opportunity to eliminate Iran as a regional predator, a state sponsor of world terrorism, and an existential nuclear threat.
Jack Keane, a retired four-star general, is a former Army vice chief of staff and current chairman at the Institute for the Study of War.
