Paul St-Pierre Plamondon celebrates his victory to become the next premier of Quebec. Photograph: Andrej Ivanov/AFP/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenPaul St-Pierre Plamondon celebrates his victory to become the next premier of Quebec. Photograph: Andrej Ivanov/AFP/Getty ImagesAnalysisSeparatists win in Quebec – but does that bring separation from Canada any closer?Martin Patriquin in MontrealLack of majority for Parti Québécois puts any referendum in doubt, especially amid bruising trade war with Trump
The victory of the Parti Québécois in Monday’s election in Quebec might seem to bring its signature goal, of separating the French-speaking province from Canada, much closer – but Canadian unity may not be nearly as threatened as may first seem.
The PQ’s victory was both impressive and disappointing. The party added 56 seats to its roster and more than doubled its vote share compared to the 2022 election, giving it its first taste of power in 14 years. Crucially, however, it was left five seats short of a majority, making its promise to hold a referendum after Donald Trump leaves office in 2028 nearly impossible.
It also won with barely 28% of the popular vote, the lowest percentage for any government in Canada’s electoral history, according to the polling analyst Philippe Fournier.
The vast majority of Quebecers voted for parties that want nothing to do with a referendum. It’s a reflection of the province’s 30-year aversion to another bruising debate about Quebec’s place in Canada – particularly in the wake of Trump’s tariffs and threats against the country.
The result not only puts another referendum in doubt, but a raft of other PQ initiatives too, including abolishing the monarchy and applying Quebec’s strict language laws to the province’s colleges. The new government will also face stiff opposition to its plans to reduce immigration levels, which has angered farmers and the business community.
Meanwhile, the most popular politician in the province remains far and away the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, in large part because of his resistance to Trump. That has left PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in an awkward situation for a separatist: he can’t be seen as a threat to Canadian unity. He essentially acknowledged this in his victory speech, pledging to be a “good-faith collaborator” with the rest of the country, and even addressing the crowd in English; then attempted to court the other side of the debate by announcing Tuesday he would prevent the lieutenant governor, who represents the British crown, from swearing in his new government.
“Seventy percent of Quebecers don’t want a referendum,” said John Parisella, who served as chief of staff to two Quebec premiers and the province’s delegate general in New York and Washington.
“And every time they see Trump’s picture on the screen at night, it does nothing to improve a desire for separation. For a lot of Quebecers, the link with Canada is absolutely crucial, even if it isn’t necessarily emotional.”
The vote, in fact, may have less to do with embracing separatism and more about punishing the current government. The election saw the total collapse of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which has been in power since 2018. An alliance of federalists and separatists (the party describes itself as nationalist), it didn’t win a single seat, and harvested just a third of its vote share compared to 2022. Its leader, Christine Fréchette, lost her own riding to the Parti Québécois, and on Tuesday afternoon she resigned.
In a province whose political discourse has focused on the federalist-separatist divide, the election also suggested a return to normalcy of sorts – with separatists returning to the PQ’s fold, while the federalist vote dispersed to the opposition Liberal party and the upstart Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ).
The PCQ feasted on the CAQ’s support in the election, winning 19 ridings in the hinterland and in the Quebec City area, where leader Éric Duhaime won his seat for the first time. Founded in 2009, the populist party counts a prominent anti-vaxxer and a rage-bating anti-woke radio host as two of its winning candidates.
The party was able to break through in part because of its promise to build an underground highway linking Quebec City to its suburbs across the St Lawrence, despite government reports saying the endeavor would cost as much as C$9.3bn and do little to alleviate traffic.
Montreal, meanwhile, went decidedly Liberal red, with leader Charles Milliard regaining seats on the island and in the traditionally English redoubt of the Eastern Townships. The staunchly federalist Liberals, who are unaffiliated with Carney’s federal Liberals, will serve as Quebec’s official opposition. Governing with but a handful of seats in the province’s biggest metropolis will be challenging enough for the PQ; as history has shown, winning a referendum without it is somewhere near impossible.
Canada faces another potential menace to its sovereignty in a little less than two weeks, when Alberta in the west holds a “referendum on a referendum” on secession. Happily for Carney, and unfortunately for Trump, polls suggest Albertans are as averse to dalliances with separation as their Quebecois brethren have now become to the east – no matter the party they just chose to govern.
