Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day watches warm ups prior to the NCAA football game against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K RoyalTexas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas on Sept. 12, 2026. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect See more of our coverage in your search results.
Add The New York Post on Google Not every loss is created equal.
Arch Manning and No. 4 Texas’ historic 24-23 triumph over No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday will be one to remember, but it wasn’t enough to shake up college football futures markets: the Buckeyes’ odds as favorites to win the national championship only got shorter.
Ohio State moved from +550 to +530 at DraftKings after Texas marched back with 20 points in the fourth quarter — the largest fourth-quarter rally to defeat a No. 1 team.
The Buckeyes sank to No. 6 in the AP Top 25 while Texas, now the No. 1 team in the country, sits next on the board, priced at +650.
This surprising market reaction underscores just how little one regular-season loss to a contender can mean in the expanded College Football Playoff era, according to DraftKings Director of Sports Operations Johnny Avello.
“In today’s college football landscape, a team can suffer a loss or two and still make a championship run. Ohio State proved that in 2024, winning the national title after two regular-season losses,” Avello told The Post.
Ohio State was ranked No. 3 when it lost 32-31 to No. 4 Oregon on Oct. 12 and No. 2 when it was shut out 13-0 by an unranked Michigan team on Nov. 30, 2024.
That was the first season with an expanded 12-team playoff format, featuring four rounds, with first-round games played at on-campus sites and subsequent rounds hosted by major bowl games.
The Buckeyes commanded most of the game until the fourth-quarter collapse, outgaining the Longhorns by 36 in total yardage. They did that despite the hostility of playing in front of 100,119 opposing fans and the first three quarters ultimately mattered more than the final result.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Brandon Inniss in action against Texas. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect “While Ohio State did blow a lead, they were in control for most of that game in a hostile road environment. The result could have gone either way,” BetMGM public relations manager John Ewing told The Post.
This also wasn’t a Big Ten loss, so Ohio State still has a viable road to winning the conference and reaching the playoff.
“A one-point road loss to Texas — one of the highest-rated teams on our board — doesn’t materially change our view of either team,” Aviello said. “Ohio State remains our top-rated team, with elite talent across the field and a clear path to the College Football Playoff.”
The same logic works in reverse, as Texas’ late push when it reverted to the run and short passing game didn’t erase their struggles beforehand. The victory pads its playoff pursuit early, but it’s more or less a feather in the cap.
The Longhorns will have to prove their adjustments can last with a gauntlet of six ranked teams ahead on their schedule.
They’ll first get a tune-up against UTSA on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET while the Buckeyes return home to face Illinois at noon.
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
