Anti-migrant violence, economic stagnation and corruption allegations are eroding support for South Africa's ruling ANC ahead of local elections in November, opening the door to new coalition possibilities.
https://p.dw.com/p/5J5LBRamaphosa still enjoys the backing of his ANC party, the country's biggest, which leads a coalition governmentImage: Chen Wei/GCIS/Handout/Xinhua/IMAGOAdvertisementImpassable roads, crater-like potholes, burst water pipes, mountains of trash, and grinding poverty are part of everyday life in South Africa's communities. So too are unemployment, hunger, and crime.
The latest wave of violence targeting foreign nationals has claimed several lives since April and forced more than 176,000 people to flee South Africa, most of them returning to their home countries of neighboring Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique.
At the recently concluded Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit in Durban, the vigilante group March and March again called for migrants to leave South Africa.
"Come and take your people back," its members urged the governments of neighboring countries, while police moved to contain the protests.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said ahead of the summit that he was "concerned and ashamed" that citizens of other countries had been subjected to abuse and violence and had been forced to flee.
According to Fredson Guilengue of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, growing anti-migrant sentiment is a symptom of deeper public discontent.
"This reflects their frustration, particularly with the ANC's failure at both the national and local levels to create jobs, tackle inequality, reduce crime and improve living conditions," Guilengue told DW. "In the [November 4] elections, South Africans will express their deep frustration over the lack of public services, inadequate infrastructure and poverty."
The African National Congress (ANC), Nelson Mandela's former liberation party, is on course to perform even worse than in the 2024 general election, when it suffered a historic setback, winning 40.2% of the vote, Guilengue notes.
According to Guilengue, the November elections are unlikely to go in the ANC's favor, as little has changed for the better since the last election. In other words, unemployment remains very high, as do crime rates and corruption.
"These problems have not been resolved over the years and have become entrenched in South African society. The municipalities have been governed by the ANC, and there has been widespread mismanagement alongside a steady deterioration of infrastructure. That has generated enormous public anger," he added.
Voters are expected to turn to opposition parties, including the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), a party supported primarily by white voters and one that has been part of a government of national unity with the ANC since 2024.
In a surprise move, former Cape Town mayor Helen Zille, known as the "Iron Lady," is running as the DA's mayoral candidate in Johannesburg in the upcoming local elections, hoping to rescue the country's economic hub from its deep crisis.
"She will run a very strong campaign, which could benefit the DA and hurt the ANC," Guilengue said.
Political analysts say the ANC has faced persistent leadership challenges in recent years, and they have noted that, although impeachment proceedings against President Cyril Ramaphosahave been suspended for the time being, they have damaged his public image.
Ramaphosa came under suspicion of money laundering in 2020 after half a million US dollars was stolen from a sofa on his Phala Phala game farm. He has always denied wrongdoing and said the $580,000 stolen was proceeds from the sale of buffaloes.
"The ANC's strategy is to drag out these proceedings so that they do not coincide with this year's elections, at least," Guilengue said. "Possibly until the next general election in 2029, when Ramaphosa will no longer be eligible to serve as president because his second term will then have ended in accordance with the constitution."
South Africa sees nationwide protests over migrantsTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
The ANC leadership, which is supposed to be fighting corruption, is itself facing allegations of corruption, noted Guilengue.
Analyst Daniel Silke speaks of a further "erosion of the ANC," saying it will become increasingly difficult for the party to retain its grip on power at the national level as its approval ratings continue to decline.
"We are witnessing a continuing turning point in South African politics that began in 2024: the gradual disintegration of the former liberation movement. The black electorate is more polarized and fragmented than ever, and among former ANC supporters, the shine has come off the liberation movement," Silke told DW.
He identifies three key characteristics of present-day South Africa:a stagnant economy, a shrinking manufacturing sector, and a lack of trust in political and security institutions as well as in the country's governance. "That's an almost perfect recipe for discontent.”
According to Silke, the key question in this election is whether former ANC voters will turn out and vote for opposition parties or stay away from the polls altogether.
Silke said that South Africans will likely spread their votes around, not only to the DA but also to the MK Party (uMkhonto weSizwe) of former president Jacob Zuma, and to ethnically aligned minority parties such as the Patriotic Alliance and the Freedom Front Plus, as well as ActionSA.
The analyst added that smaller political parties, alongside the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), will create more opportunities for coalition governments.
"Governance will be challenging, as complex coalitions, potentially including the ANC, will need to be stabilized in order to provide South Africa with at least the semblance of effective public service delivery," Silke told DW.
He added that the best South Africans can hope for is a multiparty arrangement that brings moderate forces together rather than populist ones.
However, according to Silke, the ANC and the DA remain by far the country's two largest parties, even though neither is anywhere close to securing 50% of the vote. "How they choose their coalition partners will determine South Africa's future."
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This article was originally published in German.
