Add The New York Post on Google It’s hard to gauge just how good Brazil is right now.
Canarinho were just OK in a 1-1 draw against Morocco, but they beat up on Haiti and Scotland, showing flashes of the offensive magic we’ve grown accustomed to seeing out of the players wearing the iconic canary yellow shirts at the World Cup.
The problem is that those performances came against teams that didn’t pose too much of a threat to Brazil going forward.
Samurai Blue is not your typical underdog. Most teams that are up against steep odds prefer to sit back and turn matches into a rock fight, but Japan takes the opposite approach.
Manager Hajime Moriyasu has turned the Japanese National Team into one of the most exciting squads in international soccer, as they emphasize pace and pressure.
On the ball, Japan wants to move quickly up the field with quick passing combinations that turn defenses inside out. When they don’t have the pill, Samurai Blue work relentlessly to get it back. They’re not afraid to press high up the pitch, no matter the opponent.
Brazil has the playmakers to punish an overly frisky defense, but this style is nothing new to Japan. Moriyasu has been in charge for almost a decade, and each player on this roster knows his role inside and out. They are aggressive, but they are also disciplined.
Keito Nakamura and Takefusa Kubo celebrate a goal for Japan. Getty Images In a funny twist, Brazil has actually played more like Japan in this group stage. Carlo Ancelotti is known for his willingness to adapt his tactics, and he’s had Selecao press for more turnovers up the field, knowing that his best player, Vinicius Junior, is deadly in transition.
That adjustment, along with moving Vinicius to a more central role, unlocked the Brazilian attack, but it’s one thing to dominate Scotland and Haiti. Japan will be a much trickier puzzle to solve.
With both teams willing to engage, I think this match has plenty of potential to fly off the handle, making Over 2.5 goals a good bet.
As for a side, it’s hard not to jump on the price on Japan to win this one inside 90 minutes. Samurai Blue is the underdog for a reason, but the gap between these two teams, especially with the style of play we’re expecting, is much tighter than the odds suggest.
Brazil’s defense was pushed to the limits against Morocco, and I expect Japan to push it even further.
The Play: Over 2.5 goals (+104) | Japan moneyline (+420, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
