Keir Starmer is expected to announce on Monday that we will step down as UK prime minister. Photograph: WPA/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenKeir Starmer is expected to announce on Monday that we will step down as UK prime minister. Photograph: WPA/Getty ImagesMonday briefing: What’s next for no-drama Starmer as his ‘political challenges’ pile up?In today’s newsletter: Our senior political correspondent talks about how the coming days and weeks may unfold for the Labour government, and how Keir Starmer ended up the most unpopular prime minister in memory
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Good morning. Today’s the day, probably. Keir Starmer is expected to announce that he will step down as prime minister, after overwhelming pressure from Labour MPs to make way for Andy Burnham to become party leader.
This follows the Manchester mayor’s emphatic victory in last Thursday’s Makerfield byelection, where he leveraged his popularity and the prevailing anti-Starmer mood to secure more votes than Reform and Restore combined, cementing his credentials as the man who can take on the hard right in the next general election.
I spoke to senior political correspondent, Peter Walker, about how the coming days and weeks may unfold for the Labour government, and pondered how “no-drama Starmer” ended up the most unpopular prime minister in memory (and lord knows, we’ve had plenty of them).
Middle East | High-stakes talks between the US and Iran are expected to continue for the rest of the week in Switzerland, after a tense start that saw Iranian negotiators walk out in protest at a stream of threats issued by Donald Trump on social media.
Edinburgh | Police Scotland said a man was charged after a series of attacks in Edinburgh on Friday night that are being treated as potential anti-Muslim hate crimes. Counter-terrorism officers were brought in to investigate the attacks in which five people were injured.
UK weather | The Met Office forecasts that extremely high temperatures could last from Monday until Thursday, leading to health concerns for elderly and vulnerable people.
UK news | Police have named the driver killed in the Bedford train crash on Friday, as his family said they “are devastated by his loss”.
Prisons | Pet ferrets kept as therapy animals at the UK’s largest children’s prison have been co-opted by managers to kill rats, resulting in a bloody incident and concerns over child and animal welfare.
View image in fullscreenSir Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham at a Premier League match between Manchester United and Arsenal in 2024. Photograph: Ash Donelon/Manchester United/Getty ImagesYesterday morning, Peter wrote an article predicting Starmer would set out his timetable for leaving office later today. It was based on an interview that the business secretary, Peter Kyle, gave to the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg, and was informed by dozens of conversations Peter had with his contacts over the weekend.
When I speak to Peter later, the first thing he mentions is the dog that didn’t bark. “Usually, if there’s something that can be challenged in any way, someone in No 10 will be on the phone saying, ‘That’s wrong. That needs changing’.” Instead, hours after his report was published he tells me, “I’ve not heard a single peep.”
A few hours after that, Donald Trump indicated that his sources agreed with Peter’s (or else he’d been following the story on the Guardian), posting that Starmer “will resign” and wishing him well, in remarks that no doubt caused huge embarrassment for Downing Street at such a delicate moment.
For weeks, Starmer’s allies have been briefing that he was “hellbent” on fighting any challenge to his leadership, and on Saturday the official Downing Street line remained that he’s “not going to walk away”. But whatever they might say publicly, something has changed. “A lot of Labour MPs were already convinced that Starmer wasn’t up to it, and it was worth the punt on Andy Burnham, but that mood is now shifting again,” Peter tells me. More than 200 Labour MPs – over half the parliamentary party – are willing to nominate Burnham for the leadership, making a coronation seem inevitable.
And as yesterday progressed, Sky News reported that the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, has joined senior cabinet colleagues including energy secretary Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, home secretary Shabana Mahmood, and transport secretary Heidi Alexander, in urging Starmer to step aside in an orderly fashion.
Burnham has remained resolutely silent, packing for the early train down from Manchester to Westminster this morning, but chat about allowing Starmer a dignified exit appears to speak to Labour neuralgia at repeating Tory leadership chaos. For that reason alone, timing is everything – an announcement today would pre-empt tomorrow’s scheduled cabinet meeting, where at least half of those around the table want Starmer gone and after which many outlets have reported resignations are planned if he doesn’t accept the writing is on the wall.
“No 10 has to reach a decision very quickly – will he fight or will he go?” says Peter. “Everyone now assumes the decision is going, but we still haven’t had anything official.”
While Burnham supporters are increasingly confident of a coronation, the debate is still live about whether a contest would be more democratic – and allow for an open reflection on what has gone so wrong under Starmer, who led Labour to a sweeping general election victory, winning a majority of 174 seats, less than two years ago.
“There are still quite a lot of people who want to see a contest,” says Peter, pointing out that Kyle, a close friend of the former health secretary Wes Streeting – whose desire to be prime minister is no secret – hedged his view yesterday. “Kyle said generally he thinks contests are good, but at the same time the party has to have as dignified a process as possible.”
Kyle also cautioned against repeating the bitterness and tribalism of previous Tory leadership contests, though ex-PM Rishi Sunak, writing in the Sunday Times, urged Labour to embrace it – sort of. Sunak argued that, from experience, without a contest “your mandate is weak, and you end up being bound by commitments that aren’t your priorities”. Of course, a contest did little to aid his predecessor, Liz Truss, when she attempted to implement her will.
Elsewhere, writing in the Guardian on the day of the Makerfield byelection, Starmer’s biographer Tom Baldwin suggested that Burnham had learned lessons from Wes Streeting’s “frantic and ultimately unsuccessful” efforts to trigger a contest after the local elections.
Although Peter predicts that Streeting is most likely to set aside his leadership ambitions for the meantime and push for a juicy role in Burnham’s cabinet, he adds: “It’s possible that if it becomes the consensus in Labour that there should be a contest to test Burnham’s ideas, then some MPs, particularly Starmer loyalists, might gravitate towards [Streeting]”, even though his popularity with the Labour membership is even worse than Starmer’s.
And then there’s the party’s chronic inability to elect a woman to the top job – something Scottish Labour has managed three times, not to mention the Tories, the Scottish Tories, the Greens, the Scottish Greens, and the SNP. Last week, there were reports that frustrated Labour women were urging Yvette Cooper to stand amid concerns that a contest would only feature male candidates.
Team Burnham is advocating an extended timetable, Peter explains, that would see him in place by party conference, which begins on 27 September.
This allows Starmer to enjoy one final act of statesmanship at the Nato summit in Turkey, next month: for all the manifold criticisms of his leadership, there’s agreement that he’s been an adept player on the world stage, in particular navigating the fragile nexus between Trump and Europe, even though dissatisfaction with his stance on Gaza has been felt keenly in many parts of the country.
“This extended handover also gives Burnham time to think about who his cabinet would be and what his policy priorities are,” says Peter. As Greater Manchester mayor, Burnham’s focus has necessarily been narrow and regional. This summer would afford him time to expand his thinking and also get to grips with Downing Street’s communications strategy, universally agreed to be one of Starmer’s greatest weaknesses.
And then there’s the small matter of uniting the party to fight Reform in the Manchester mayoral contest to replace Burnham, which is now set for 30 July.
Does anyone else remember those clothes pegs?
Mulling all of this, I was reminded of Polly Toynbee’s clothes pegs. (Stay with me!). Back in 2005, when I was editing her columns on the Opinion desk, she advised disillusioned progressive voters, furious at Tony Blair for joining the 2003 invasion of Iraq, to hold their noses at the general election and vote Labour – and offered them a free clothes peg to help. The Guardian subsequently provided hundreds of readers with a wooden clothes peg stamped with the words “vote Labour”.
(Have any of you still got them? If so please take a photo – you don’t have to be wearing it – and send it in to first.edition@theguardian.com.)
Since then, I’ve reported on people’s anger at successive prime ministers, but none have been so viscerally disliked across the spectrum as Starmer – so I called up Polly, who was busy working on her column, to ask what it is about him that stirs such passion. I’ve heard it myself on the doorsteps during the recent Holyrood election campaign: welfare reforms, Gaza, Mandelson … Weren’t no clothes peg big enough. And still Starmer didn’t take us into an illegal war or party while grieving relatives were kept away from their dying loved ones during Covid lockdowns.
Is it down to that enduring criticism of Starmer’s poor storytelling, or voters’ accumulated disappointments, or simply politics in the social media age?
“I’ve tried to analyse it a bit in the column,” Polly tells me, “which is a kind of warning to Andy Burnham too, that first impressions are so important. First there was Starmer’s very dismal speech in the Downing Street garden, then Rachel Reeves’s very dismal £22m black hole …” Polly’s list goes on: freebies, the winter fuel payment, the farmers’ tax.
“They did a whole string of things behind the scenes that were really important – Great British Energy, the wealth fund – but they’re not the sort of things people notice.
“What’s interesting is that the last four prime ministers have each been the most unpopular ever,” Polly adds. “That’s extraordinary. Maybe we’re in a time of such hatred of politics, after 20 years of stagnation and disappointed expectations.”
Among Starmer’s remaining supporters, there is now, Peter tells me, a sense of profound unfairness. “At the same time, the poll numbers [showing Reform consistently ahead of Labour] don’t lie.”
“Labour MPs aren’t simply worried about their seats but about the fact that, if there’s not a change at the top, Nigel Farage is going to be PM by 2029. They know this is a last roll of the dice.”
Tuesday | This day marks the 10 years since the UK voted to leave the EU. A Guardian report analysing the complex legacy of Brexit through boats, bankers and borders is a good place to consider the legacy of leaving the EU.
Tuesday | Also this day, Peter Murrell, the ex-chief executive of the SNP, is likely to be sentenced to prison custody after pleading guilty to embezzling more than £400,000 from the party.
Wednesday | Donna Ockenden will publish her review of Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Britain’s biggest maternity care scandal.
Friday | Kings Charles will become the first head of state to reveal their personal tax bill, and will release other financial reports for the royal household.
View image in fullscreen‘People feel very attached to Queenie’ … Candice Carty-Williams. Photograph: Serena Brown/The Guardian I really enjoyed this nuanced interview by Emma Loffhagan with Queenie author Candice Carty-Williams about the emotional labour of representing Black women in the publishing world. Libby
Catherine Milne’s extraordinary piece about the death of her best friend, Annabel Rook, who after working to support victims of gender-based violence became one herself, is a loving tribute and a howl of outrage that more isn’t being done to protect women. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
Having spent too much of my 20s squinting into the ugly lighting in the communal changing rooms at Topshop, Oxford Street, I was interested to read our sister newsletter Fashion Statement on the death of the changing room. Libby
View image in fullscreenCape Verde’s Helio Varela celebrates scoring their second goal. Photograph: Marco Bello/ReutersOn the pitch
Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde | The tiny nation with a population equivalent to that of Bristol delivered more heroics with a draw against Uruguay that opens up the possibility of the Blue Sharks reaching the knockout stage.
Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia | A Hassan al-Tambakti own goal completed the scoring in Spain’s comprehensive World Cup Group H win against Saudi Arabia.
Belgium 0-0 Iran | Iran had a goal disallowed for offside in the stalemate with 10-man Belgium, while Alireza Beiranvand pulled off a preposterous save to deny Maxim De Cuyper.
New Zealand 1-3 Egypt | Mohamed Salah led Egypt to their first-ever World Cup victory as they recovered to beat New Zealand, moving top of Group G and boosting their hopes of reaching the knockout stage.
Ghana | Midfielder Thomas Partey is in the spotlight as he prepares to begin his World Cup campaign, facing England and former Arsenal teammates after rape charges, which he denies.
England| Declan Rice has revealed he has been managing nerve pain in a hamstring since Christmas as he reflected on the “obscene” number of matches he has played this season.
Media | Fox’s broadcast in the US has become a story of two contrasting styles. And there is one clear winner.
Argentina v Austria, 6pm (BST), AT&T Stadium, Texas, USA
France v Iraq, 1opm (BST), Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, USA
Norway v Senegal, 1am (Tuesday) (BST), MetLife Stadium, New York, USA
Jordan v Algeria, 4am (Tuesday) (BST), Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco, USA
View image in fullscreen Photograph: The Guardian“Starmer expected to announce exit to clear way for Burnham”, is the Guardian’s front page today. The Times says “Burnham aiming for PM ‘coronation’ by September”, and the Telegraph similarly writes “Burnham plans to be in No10 by September”.
Still on politics, the i Paper has “Burnham’s stark ultimatum to Starmer: resign or face mass Labour walkouts” and the Mail says “Now rip up tax pledges, Labour left tell Burnham”. The Express has “Now brace yourself for more ‘reckless’ tax and spend”. The FT runs “Starmer on brink of stepping down as Burnham heads for Westminster”, and the Mirror’s headline is “Game over”. Lastly, Metro plays on the hot weather and political drama with “Coup, what a scorcher!”.
View image in fullscreenDavid Batty, looking at portrait of his birth father Monti. Photograph: Lydia Goldblatt/The GuardianThe complicated truth about adoption reunions
Guardian news editor David Batty spent years longing to meet his birth mother. But his reunion with the woman who had been forced to give him up was far from the fairytale he had imagined. He explains why the legacy of forced adoption continues to cast such a long shadow.
View image in fullscreen Illustration: Stephen Lillie/The GuardianThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
View image in fullscreenThere’s an exercise for that. Composite: Guardian Design; Maskot; Piksel; Svetikd; Sergey Chayko/Getty ImagesMost of us don’t need extreme exercise to keep fit. We need to lift groceries and grandchildren, care for kids or avoid injuries at a five-a-side game. As Brian Murray, the founder of Motive Training, puts it: “Real life doesn’t look like the gym.” Murray is one of a dozen movement coaches, personal trainers and strength specialist weighing in on simply moves that make everyday life easier: side planks to help stay upright on public transport; a yoga move that makes retrieving something off the top shelf in the kitchen easier (and safer); or lunges to get up after a stumble. Even the most basic of things we did as children – skipping – not only help you warm up your body, it can also give you a little burst of joy, says one fitness coach Steve Kamb: “Plus, it’s basically impossible not to smile while you do it.”
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And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
