Add The New York Post on Google Polling has been scant ahead of New York’s key contested congressional primaries on Tuesday, but bettors on Polymarket are focusing on predicting the winner of four contests — including three where socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani has backed a candidate.
Five-term incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat was listed as having a 57% chance of winning re-election on the prediction market, compared to a 45% chance for Mamdani-backed Democratic socialist insurgent Darializa Avila Chevalier in the 13th House district covering northern Manhattan and parts of The Bronx.
Meanwhile, Mamdani-backed Democratic Assemblywoman Claire Valdez has an 83% chance of winning, compared to 18% odds for Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez in Brooklyn-Queens District 7.
Former city Comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander has a 99% chance of winning the affluent 10th Big Apple congressional district, which covers parts of brownstone Brooklyn and lower Manhattan, according to the prediction market — compared to just 1% for two-term incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman.
In the 12th District, covering the Upper East and West Sides of Manhattan, bettors are banking on Assemblyman Micah Lasher, giving him a 59% chance of replacing retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler.
Assemblyman Alex Bores, meanwhile, is running with a 43% chance of winning, according to Polymarket. Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of former President John F. Kennedy, has only a 1% chance.
While Polymarket bettors might be focused on those four key congressional primaries, there are other House races worth noting, including:
