Massachusetts, long a bastion of progressive politics and high taxes, has quietly watched the equivalent of one-and-a-half Cambridges pack up and leave.
A new analysis from the Pioneer Institute finds that more than 182,000 net domestic residents exited the commonwealth between April 2020 and July 2025, a sustained outflow that researchers describe as a lasting structural shift rather than a brief pandemic aftershock.
The report, “The Massachusetts’ Labor Force: Now and Beyond,” paints a picture of a state grappling with affordability pressures, demographic decline and slowing economic momentum.
While the labor force recently climbed back above pre-pandemic levels, reaching nearly 4 million workers at its 2025 peak, that rebound masked deeper vulnerabilities, the study warns.
“The greatest headwind to labor force growth in Massachusetts is out-migration,” the authors write, noting that departures have remained elevated even as remote work trends have cooled.
Those leaving skew younger, particularly adults between 26 and 34, draining the state’s future workforce and tax base.
Since bottoming out at 3.2% in April 2023, the unemployment rate has steadily climbed to 4.8%, higher than most neighboring New England states and above the national average at the end of 2025.
Private-sector hiring has yet to regain its footing. Between January 2020 and December 2025, Massachusetts shed roughly 18,000 private-sector positions, making it one of only four states with fewer private jobs than before COVID struck. Over that same stretch, Florida, Texas and North Carolina each posted double-digit percentage gains.
At the same time, growth in key knowledge industries has cooled. Employment in professional, scientific and technical services — a category that includes life sciences and high-tech firms — has fallen by more than 15,000 jobs from its 2022 high-water mark. Retail, manufacturing and hospitality payrolls also remain below 2019 levels.
Demographics add to the strain. Massachusetts had the seventh-lowest fertility rate in the nation in 2024, and annual natural population growth has fallen sharply since the mid-2000s.
Just 15.5% of residents are under age 15 — 2 percentage points below the national average — while the share of older adults continues to rise.
“Economic growth and the labor force are intimately tied,” the report states. “Strong economic tailwinds create the conditions necessary for businesses to confidently expand and hire workers, while uncertainty and downturn can lead the private sector to pull back.”
To be sure, the commonwealth retains formidable strengths. With more than 53% of adults holding at least a bachelor’s degree, Massachusetts remains the most educated state in the country. Labor force participation also ranks among the highest nationwide.
But researchers caution that those advantages may not be enough if population losses persist. A separate estimate cited in the report projects that the state’s college-educated workforce could shrink by nearly 192,000 by 2030 due to retirements and continued domestic outflows.
