Make New York Post a Preferred Source Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) runs during an NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals in Madrid, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026. The Bengals won 34-17. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect From a 5-0 start to back-to-back losses and a slow start against the woeful Jets, the Chiefs are raising caution on the betting market.
An elite Seahawks defense shut down Patrick Mahomes in Week 7 while communication and bad penalties cost the Chiefs against the Broncos the following week, but lack of execution has been the theme for 10 of their last 12 quarters of football.
Be that as it may, the Chiefs are laying 3.5 points against the Falcons in Atlanta this week.
The Falcons have been bludgeoned to a 50-17 scoring deficit over their last two games, first getting shut out by Tampa Bay, who remarkably didn’t complete a single pass attempt, before allowing Cincinnati to score 34 points in Madrid.
A lot of this can be wired to quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
He’s completed just 59 percent of his passes for 5.9 yards per attempt over his last four games, ranking 26th and 28th in the NFL, respectively.
As much as we can point fingers at the Chiefs’ offense as of late, the defense has held its end of the bargain all season, holding opponents to 6.4 yards per attempt and a 2.5 percent touchdown rate.
Chris Jones (95) high-fives teammate George Karlaftis (56) after a sack during a game against the New York Jets in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026. Getty Images Atlanta’s best offensive weapon remains Bijan Robinson, who leads the league with 880 rushing yards, but Kansas City has been stout against the run, surrendering just 96.3 yards per game.
And in the Chiefs’ backfield, while Kenneth Walker has been a breath of fresh air, he was ruled out for this game after not practicing Friday due to groin tightness.
Rookie Emmett Johnson, who is averaging 13.9 yards per game and has two total touchdowns, will take over lead back duties.
The reigning Super Bowl MVP has produced 872 rushing yards and seven touchdowns through eight games. The Jets had no answers for him last week when he erupted for 143 scrimmage yards and three total touchdowns.
Walker has also helped reshape Kansas City’s offense, allowing Mahomes to operate under center and utilize play-action at career-high rates. Mahomes has increasingly relied on shorter throws, with just 27.8 percent of his passes traveling at least 10 yards downfield, the lowest rate of his career.
That approach could prove effective against an Atlanta defense allowing an 82.1 percent completion rate on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
I don’t blame the skeptics, but Kansas City remains the more appealing side in this one.
THE PLAY: Chiefs -3.5 (+100, BetMGM)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
