Make New York Post a Preferred Source USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava. Getty Images Last year, Indiana’s offense steamrolled everybody in its way.
This year, it’s the Hoosiers’ defense that has them in the mix to repeat as national champions.
That defense will be put to the test on Saturday against USC, which is coming off a season-saving (and coach-saving) win over Ohio State last time out.
The Hoosiers are 8.5-point favorites over the Trojans in Bloomington.
No. 6 Indiana (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) is in a better spot than No. 15 USC (7-2, 4-2), but neither team can afford a loss in this contest.
The College Football Playoff committee had the Hoosiers down at No. 9 in their latest rankings, indicating that the Hoosiers are on thin ice when it comes to the Big Dance.
Whether that’s fair or not is certainly up for debate, considering there are three two-loss teams (Tennessee, Alabama, and Texas) and three other one-loss teams (Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame) ahead of the defending national champions.
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect But the truth is that Indiana has not looked completely at the races this season. All but one of Indiana’s Big Ten wins have come by one possession; it needed overtime to win its last two games against Minnesota and Michigan, and the Hoosiers were defeated, 19-15, by an Ohio State team that has lost its last two games, albeit without Julian Sayin.
Indiana’s offense, which was prolific last year, has stalled, and Curt Cignetti is not ready to commit to any quarterback for the rest of the season.
Josh Hoover, who transferred from TCU to replace Fernando Mendoza, has been just OK and is dealing with an injury. His deputy, Grant Wilson, led the Hoosiers to a win over Minnesota, but he’s been a backup in Bloomington the past two years.
USC’s defense isn’t a world-beater, but it’s hard to trust Indiana to put up crooked numbers on anybody right now.
It’s a similar story when the Trojans have the ball.
USC’s offense was shot out of a cannon to start the season, but the Trojans have been inconsistent of late. Putting up 6.8 yards per play against Ohio State is noteworthy, but they were held to 3.2 yards per play against Wisconsin the game before that.
Overall, the USC offense ranks 15th in SP+, 28th in yards per play and 23rd in points per play. Those are fine numbers, but they’re not gonna scare a defense that ranks inside the top-10 in just about every metric, and is ranked No. 2 by SP+.
The Play: Under 50.5 points (-110, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
