ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) Faces Sector Selling, Is The 25% Undervaluation Case Still Intact? Bailey Pemberton Fri, November 13, 2026 at 5:21 PM EST 6 min read ASML -1.41% NVDA -3.05% ASML -1.41% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) moved into the spotlight after Nvidia's leadership shake-up and a brief swing to net ETF selling, giving investors fresh reasons to reassess the high-profile semiconductor equipment supplier.
The latest swings in ASML Holding's share price, with a 1-day move down of 2.76% and a 30-day share price return down 12.39% after a strong year to date gain of 35.74%, reflect investors reassessing AI chip exposure as Nvidia's leadership change, sector wide selling and shifting ETF flows collide with a much stronger longer run picture. This is highlighted by a 54.10% 1-year total shareholder return and a 118.08% 3-year total shareholder return that point to momentum built over several years rather than just this quarter's headlines.
Scan how ASML Holding fits into the wider AI supply chain reprice by lining it up against 53 AI infrastructure stocks that could see similar pressure or support as sentiment swings.
Bulls see ASML Holding as an essential AI supplier on sale after the pullback. Bears see an over-owned chip tool giant tied too tightly to Nvidia. Which case do the numbers lean toward as valuation comes into focus?
ASML Holding last closed at €1,338.80, while the most followed narrative on Simply Wall St sets fair value near €1,780, which implies meaningful upside according to that framework. That view, built using a 9.2% discount rate, has been laid out in detail by Ivoed, an investor in the Simply Wall St Community who wrote the narrative and focuses heavily on China risk and valuation multiples.
Investors have recently been forced to process two very different versions of ASML. The first is a company whose demand outlook is improving fast enough for management to lift 2026 sales guidance to a range of €43 to €45bn and gross-margin guidance to a range of 54% to 56%. The second is a business facing reports that a Chinese state-backed group has begun producing domestic immersion-DUV lithography systems, creating a potential long-term challenge in a market where ASML has historically had little effective competition. The first version supports a premium valuation. The second makes that premium more fragile.
See why 52 investors see ASML Holding as 25% undervalued.
ASML Holding therefore screens as undervalued within this narrative, with the fair value set at €1,780 against the current share price of €1,338.80 and an assessed discount to that estimate of 24.8%. The gap is driven by the author's view that the firm can continue to grow earnings and cash flow while managing competition and export constraints, even if the market applies a more cautious multiple than before.
The same narrative leans on strong recent fundamentals to support that conclusion. Revenue over the latest year is reported at €39.5b and net income at €13.5b, while earnings growth over the past 5 years has been 15.9% per year according to the statements data. Profitability also looks robust in that framework, with net profit margins at 34.1% compared with 29.4% a year earlier and return on equity described as outstanding at 61.1%.
Forward looking inputs inside the narrative use consensus style expectations. Earnings are described as forecast to grow 21.7% per year over the next 3 years, with revenue expected to increase 17% annually, which is faster than the 10.7% growth rate projected for the Dutch market. Those growth assumptions, combined with the discount rate of 9.2%, are what push the model toward an undervalued conclusion rather than just a fairly priced one.
Risk is not ignored in that assessment. The same data set flags that ASML is trading above the Simply Wall St DCF estimate of future cash flow value of €1,019.57, and that 100% of its liabilities come from higher risk funding sources rather than lower risk customer deposits. The author also highlights share price volatility over the past 3 months and issues around elevated CEO compensation relative to Dutch peers, which sit alongside the growth profile in the overall judgement.
Even with those caveats, the narrative points to a supportive backdrop for the wider AI story. ASML's 1-year total shareholder return of 54.10% outpaced the Dutch market's 21.9% gain, and profit growth over the past year of 42.4% exceeded the 33.8% result for the broader semiconductor industry. That mix of high profitability, strong returns and a current value score of 3 out of 6 underpins the view that recent share price weakness reflects sentiment shifts more than a collapse in fundamentals.
The end result is a valuation stance that sees room for upside but not without conditions. The author's fair value estimate assumes ASML Holding can keep growing earnings at a strong clip while defending its technical edge and managing Chinese competition, yet also acknowledges that any reset in required returns, export rules or capital spending plans could compress that value. For readers, the key question is whether those narrative assumptions feel comfortable given individual risk tolerance and time horizon.
Result: Fair Value of €1,780 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the story can change quickly if export controls tighten further or if Chinese lithography tools gain traction faster than ASML Holding's narrative assumes.
Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.
ASML Holding screens as undervalued in the community narrative, yet the market is still paying 38x P/E. That is slightly above the 36x peer average and just under the 39.1x European semiconductor mark, while the fair ratio points higher at 42.3x. In practice, that gap suggests investors are already paying a premium for quality, but also that the market could demand an even richer multiple if growth and returns stay on script. The question for you is whether that premium feels like headroom or hazard.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Plenty in this ASML Holding story points to both opportunity and unease, so move fast, review the full picture, and weigh the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
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This article is general in nature and was produced with the assistance of AI automation, based on data and analysis from Simply Wall St. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASML.AS.
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