The Single Most Important Metric For Moderna Stock Trefis Team Fri, November 13, 2026 at 3:12 PM EST 3 min read MRNA -3.74% ^GSPC -0.61% PFE +0.02% ALNY +5.43% SRPT +0.59% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
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One figure may matter most for Moderna (MRNA) stock: its revenue outside the U.S., including its strategic partnerships in the U.K., Canada and Australia. You probably still see Moderna as a fading pandemic vaccine maker, and its $2.93 billion operating loss over the last twelve months fits that view. That loss includes a $900 million litigation settlement charge, management said. Yet the stock trades at 36.8 times sales, against 3.2 for the S&P 500. That is the contradiction. So, how much is Moderna now selling outside the U.S.?
Moderna's Sales Abroad Already Top Their 2025 Total
Management said on the November 6 call that Moderna's international revenue reached $900 million in the first nine months of 2026, already $200 million more than in all of 2025. Sales abroad made up about 40% of third-quarter revenue, and management expects an even split with the U.S. for the full year.
The overseas business is growing in 2026, and management described a significant portion of it as very durable. Citing the strong start to the season and its visibility into the fourth quarter, management raised its 2026 outlook for total revenue growth to 15% to 25%, from up to 10% before.
For one quarter, yes. Moderna earned an operating profit of $0.13 billion in the third quarter of 2026, against an operating loss of $0.26 billion a year earlier. Over the twelve months to September 30, 2026, though, Moderna still lost money on operations, on revenue of $2.52 billion.
That twelve-month loss is the obvious worry for anyone paying today's price, and Moderna has answered it for one quarter only. Cash flow was weaker still: even in the profitable third quarter, cash from operations was an outflow of $1.56 billion. Management pointed to a $950 million litigation settlement payment and the seasonal swing in working capital.
Moderna is not short of cash while it waits. Management said it ended the quarter with $8 billion in cash and investments, helped by $2.6 billion of net proceeds from a convertible note.
What Could Show Moderna's Overseas Growth Stalling?
A weak fourth quarter could. Management said third-quarter revenue also reflected the timing of shipments between the third and fourth quarters, so part of the third quarter's strength could come out of the fourth. Moderna's sales swing hard by season, too: revenue was $143 million in the second quarter of 2026, a small fraction of the third quarter's $1.31 billion.
At home, COVID-19 vaccinations in U.S. retail and long-term care channels were trending slightly behind last year through late October, management said. It added that October momentum suggests they may end up flat year over year. If overseas growth stalls as well, Moderna is left with the loss-making business you probably pictured to begin with.
Today, Moderna's sales abroad are growing, while the company has earned an operating profit in only one of its last five quarters. Moderna's international revenue for the fourth quarter, and its full-year growth against the 15% to 25% framework, are the figures to watch when Moderna reports, expected in February 2027. Moderna also held an Analyst Day on November 12, and its stock fell 7% that session.
Not Sure Moderna Is Worth It At This Price?
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