Nebius Plummeted 33% in 3 Months: High Target Price Predicting 220% Gains Holds Steady Ahead of Q3 Earnings as Firm Avoids Nvidia Entanglement Alex Sirois Fri, November 13, 2026 at 12:45 PM EST 6 min read NBIS -9.46% NVDA -3.17% CRWV -7.88% IREN -8.14% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Nebius (NBIS) sank 17% after trimming 2026 revenue guidance and lifting capex to $27 billion, despite beating Q3 revenue and EPS estimates.
Prepayments covered more than 100% of Q3 contract capex versus 50% to 60% in Q2, while payback shortened to under two years.
CoreWeave (CRWV) raised full-year revenue guidance while IREN fell 44% in a month, contrasting with Nebius's guidance trim.
Building a portfolio and living off one are two completely different skills, and almost nobody teaches the second. This problem is what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps, and it is free today. Read more here. (Sponsor)
Shares of Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) currently trade at $128.64, while Wall Street's average price target sits at $278.05. The difference suggests 116.1% upside.
Nebius sells GPU compute through Nebius AI Cloud, which generates about 99% of revenue, putting it among the non-chipmaker names cashing in on the AI data-center expansion (we covered seven such suppliers in a free AI infrastructure report). Wall Street has followed it closely because of a second $27B five-year agreement with Meta, a $2B strategic equity investment from NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), and several other multi-year enterprise deals.
The gap matters because the most bullish target of $410.00 from Northland Capital Markets implies 218.7% upside. No major firm cut its rating or target in the week before the earnings report, even as news broke that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned. Nebius is a customer and partner with no governance or regulatory entanglement in that story.
Nebius fell 16.84% in its latest session after cutting 2026 revenue guidance to $3 billion to $3.2 billion from $3 billion to $3.4 billion and lifting 2026 capex to around $27 billion. That ended a 50.37% three-month collapse from $259.20.
Revenue of $980.8M beat the $905.74M consensus, and GAAP EPS of -$0.13 topped the -$1.238 estimate. Investors focused instead on roughly $325M of non-recurring revenue, colocation delays at New Jersey and Vineland, and a 2027 capex plan of $40-45B.
Many successful investors eventually reach the same moment. The saving is done, the portfolio is built, and the question quietly changes from how much can I grow this to how much can I take out? Get that second question wrong and decades of good investing can come apart in a handful of years.
That is exactly what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps answer. It covers what your retirement could actually cost, which income sources are worth using, and the withdrawal math that decides whether the money lasts. It is free today from Fisher Investments. Read More Here ›
Sector weakness amplified the damage. Neocloud names slid together over the past month while the S&P 500 fell only 2.67%.
Of 22 covering analysts, 2 rate it Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 6 Hold and 1 Sell. The top desks have repeated: Rothschild & Co Redburn at $399.00, Truist at $355.00 and DA Davidson at $340.00.
Prepayments on Q3 contracts covered more than 100% of the associated capex, versus 50% to 60% in Q2. Contracts closed above $25 million per megawatt, and payback shortened to one year and seven months. As Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh put it: "So our customers are paying more, they pay earlier, and they're committing for longer."
For 2027, management expects revenue of $12-13B, pre-tax breakeven in Q4 2027, and 75-85% of capex covered by prepayments and asset-backed financing. Northland benchmarks against CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), citing ACV/MW pricing and CoreWeave parity.
Price targets reflect analyst opinions. Post-report revisions may still arrive, and reaching even the average target requires the stock to more than double.
Nebius fell hardest over three months, but peers took similar one-month hits.
CoreWeave trades at $56.60 after a 27.26% one-month drop. Its average target of $125.46 implies 121.7% upside. Among 42 analysts, 8 rate it Strong Buy, 24 Buy, 7 Hold, 2 Sell and 1 Strong Sell. CoreWeave just raised full-year revenue guidance, a contrast with Nebius's trim.
IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) trades at $19.48, down 44.02% in a month. Its $56.69 average target implies 191.0% upside, with 3 Strong Buy, 13 Buy and 4 Hold ratings. Its $4 billion ARR target also slipped on timing.
IREN carries the largest analyst-implied upside, and Nebius the smallest on average targets. Nebius's appeal rests more on its Street-high case than on consensus.
At $128.64, Nebius trades against a $278.05 average target from 22 analysts, implying 116.1% upside. The 52-week range runs from $73.52 to $299.86.
Shares are down 37.81% over one month yet up 53.68% year to date. The S&P 500 has gained 11.05% year to date.
The bull case improves if prepayments keep covering capex and its owned sites in Alabama, Missouri, Finland and Pennsylvania deliver on schedule, putting the $12-13B 2027 revenue outlook within reach. The case weakens if colocation delays spread or financing markets tighten before a $40-45B build.
Three customers made up 24%, 21%, 14% of Q2 revenue, 7.6 million shares remain available under the ATM program, and GAAP profits are still a year away.
Contracted demand and customer-funded capex suggest the 50% decline may be excessive, though on-time delivery of owned capacity is the key test for the $410 case.
(Sponsor) Most people spend their entire working lives focusing on one thing: growing a pile of money. Then they retire and discover the skill they actually need is close to the opposite. Turning that pile into steady income, year after year, through good markets and bad, without ever running out.
It may be the least discussed and most consequential transition in personal finance, and plenty of otherwise careful investors walk into it with no real plan. That is exactly what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps answer. It is a free guide from Fisher Investments covering what your retirement will really cost, where the cash flow should come from, and how much you can safely withdraw each year. Learn more here. Learn More Here ›
Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.
