Microsoft Just Overtook NVIDIA. Our Model Sees $650+ Vandita Jadeja Fri, November 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM EST 5 min read MSFT +0.26% NVDA -3.88% GOOGN -1.09% AMZN -0.86% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Microsoft (MSFT) earns a BUY with a $670 price target, 23% above today's price, as Azure growth accelerates to 48%.
Alphabet's Google Cloud grew 103%, but negative free cash flow and a $99 billion equity gain distort its cheap P/E.
CFO Amy Hood said "Customer demand continues to exceed available supply," while capex surged and Windows OEM revenue is guided sharply lower.
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Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) now has a market value of roughly $4.05 trillion, which puts it just ahead of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) at about $4.04 trillion. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Microsoft is $670.06. From today's $543.73, that works out to 23.2% upside.
The market-cap lead is narrow enough to change hands within a single session. What drives the stock is more durable. Azure growth is speeding up, the contract backlog is huge, and analyst sentiment is close to unanimous. Microsoft earns a buy rating with high confidence from the model.
Shares rose 7.22% over the past week and 1.62% over the past month. They are up 13.14% year to date. The stock sits 2.8% below its 52-week high of $559.15 and 56% above its low of $348.54.
Fiscal Q1 2027 extended a six-quarter run of EPS beats. Revenue came in at $92.279 billion, ahead of the $90.751 billion estimate, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.89 topped the $4.72 consensus. Azure grew 48%, and commercial remaining performance obligations reached $677 billion, up 73%.
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Our bull case lands at $774.71. For next quarter, management guided Azure growth to 49% to 50% in constant currency. On the call, CFO Amy Hood said, "Customer demand continues to exceed available supply."
Foundry revenue more than tripled, and daily Copilot users rose nearly 50% quarter over quarter. Analysts are in step: 12 Strong Buy, 40 Buy, 5 Hold and zero Sell ratings, with a consensus target of $636.12.
Our bear case is $563.15. Quarterly capex jumped 102.99%, and calendar-year spending is expected to reach about $170 billion (much of that goes to the infrastructure suppliers we profiled in a free AI infrastructure report here).
Commercial bookings fell 12%, and management guided Windows OEM revenue down in the mid-30s. There are offsets. The bookings decline shows large Azure commitments in the prior year. Operating cash flow rose 29% to $58 billion, and Microsoft expects to stay free cash flow positive in fiscal 2027.
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) earns its place because Google Cloud competes directly with Azure for AI workloads. Google Cloud grew 103%, but Alphabet's free cash flow fell to negative $9.065 billion. Its low P/E is inflated by a $99 billion equity gain, so it understates how the market prices Alphabet's core business.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) runs AWS, the largest rival cloud. AWS grew 39%, but Amazon trades at a higher P/E and runs a far thinner operating margin than Microsoft.
Microsoft has the highest margin of the three and trades below Amazon's multiple. Against that peer set, our target looks reasonable.
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $670.06 has a buy rating at 90% confidence. The deciding factor is Azure growth that keeps speeding up while margins hold.
The case gets stronger if Azure hits its guidance and delayed GPU capacity arrives in the second half. It gets weaker if capex starts outpacing revenue.
Over the longer term, here is where our model projects Microsoft could trade if current trends hold.
These estimates assume Microsoft stays on its current path. Faster Copilot adoption could push results higher, while AI spending that fails to earn its keep could pull them lower.
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