Could Nebius Actually Climb 136%? Or Is Rosenblatt Totally Wrong? Wiltone Asuncion Fri, November 13, 2026 at 9:57 AM EST 4 min read NBIS -13.36% MSFT -0.28% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Rosenblatt Securities reiterated its Buy rating and $304 price target on Nebius Group on Nov. 13, 136% above the price after a 55% drop from its June high.
Nebius grew third-quarter revenue 571%, but delays at colocation sites, including one building capacity for Microsoft, pushed its 2026 revenue outlook to the low end of guidance as it guided to $40 billion to $45 billion of 2027 capital spending.
Revenue estimates have held up, but analysts expect a deeper 2027 loss than three months ago, and Rosenblatt's target needs about 14x forward sales, above the stock's 5-year average of 11x.
$304 within a year looks too far, since investors are unlikely to pay an above-average multiple again until Nebius's own sites come online on schedule.
Nebius Group (NBIS:NASDAQ) has lost 55% since its June 18 closing high of $286.69, and Rosenblatt Securities isn't budging. On Nov. 13, the firm reiterated its Buy rating and $304 price target, 136% above the stock's Nov. 12 close of $128.64.
On Nov. 5, Bloomberg reported that Microsoft (MSFT:NASDAQ) is tightening oversight of projects from Nebius and other neoclouds.
On Nov. 12, Nebius reported third-quarter revenue up 571% to $980.8 million, yet the stock fell 16.8% that day. Some colocation sites fell behind, including the New Jersey site building Microsoft's capacity, so Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion range. It also expects its annualized revenue run-rate to top $7 billion in February, after guiding to $7 billion to $9 billion by December.
Nebius also guided to $40 billion to $45 billion of 2027 capital spending, against the $28.77 billion analysts expected, per FactSet.
Rosenblatt kept its call after a report that showed revenue up 68% from the second quarter.
When it initiated coverage in October, it valued Nebius on 10 years of discounted cash flow, with revenue growing 98% a year through 2030. So the target rests on cash flow years away, while analysts expect free cash flow to stay deeply negative through 2028. And about $325 million of third-quarter revenue, a third of the total, came from its asset-light model, which Nebius itself calls non-recurring.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Nebius. How many say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nebius, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nebius' Analyst Ratings
Twenty-three analysts cover the stock, with targets from $84 to $410. Their consensus target has climbed to $276 from $161 a year ago, 115% above the price:
Analysts expect $12.4 billion of revenue in 2027, inside Nebius's own guidance of $12 billion to $13 billion, and $24.0 billion in 2028:
But analysts' 2027 loss estimate has deepened even as their revenue estimate rose, to $6.01 a share from $4.66 three months ago.
Investors now pay just 5.9x forward sales, against an 11x average over the last five years. Rosenblatt's $304 works out to about 14x. That's above the average but far below the 32x peak of October 2025:
Prepayments on Nebius's third-quarter deals covered more than 100% of their capex, but the full build is a different matter: Nebius expects prepayments and asset-backed financing to cover only 75% to 85% of its 2027 capital spending.
Rosenblatt has the demand right and the timing wrong. For the stock to more than double from here, investors would have to pay an above-average multiple for a company whose expected 2027 loss has gotten deeper. That looks unlikely until Nebius's own sites come online on schedule.
The next check is Nebius's fourth-quarter report early next year. If it shows the remaining New Jersey tranches on track for the second quarter of 2027 and the 2027 loss estimate stops growing, $304 would look a lot more reasonable.
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what Nebius could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
