AI semiconductor bull warns Nvidia crisis could trigger broader earnings reset Louis Juricic Fri, November 13, 2026 at 7:58 AM EST 4 min read NVDA +1.73% AMD -2.46% AVGO -2.12% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Investing.com -- The turmoil surrounding Nvidia is raising questions about more than the future of the world's most influential AI chipmaker, with a previously bullish semiconductor analyst warning that the fallout could spread across the industry through weaker AI investment and tighter US export restrictions.
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In a note titled "AI Semis: The Calm Before the Storm," KC Rajkumar of Lynx Equity Strategies said investors appeared frozen in inaction following Jensen Huang's sudden departure as Nvidia's chief executive, as they struggled to assess the implications for companies throughout the AI supply chain.
Huang resigned on November 12, effective immediately, following reports about alleged personal relationships, including one involving Alice Huang, a Singapore-based businesswoman suspected by US authorities of having links to Chinese intelligence. Nvidia appointed CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO and began searching for a permanent successor.
The controversy has also brought renewed scrutiny of Nvidia's China business, its relationships with customers and partners, and the financing arrangements supporting the AI infrastructure boom.
Rajkumar said investors were increasingly aware of the risk of a wave of cancellations involving circular financing arrangements but appeared unsure where to begin cutting earnings estimates. He believes the relatively muted reaction across semiconductor stocks may reflect uncertainty rather than confidence that the sector has absorbed the shock.
The concern is that Nvidia's investments and financing relationships with companies throughout the AI ecosystem have helped support demand for its own chips. If those arrangements are scaled back or projects lose financial backing, the consequences could extend to chipmakers and infrastructure providers well beyond Nvidia.
While no broad wave of cancellations has been established, Rajkumar believes the potential unwinding of these arrangements represents a significant risk to the industry's growth assumptions. He expects upcoming investor conferences to provide greater clarity, but warned that semiconductor companies may need to revisit their 2027 forecasts.
Lutnick controversy raises the stakes for chipmakers
The Nvidia crisis has also spilled into Washington, creating another potential source of uncertainty for US semiconductor companies.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has come under scrutiny over the administration's handling of restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to China. An Axios report on November 11 said Lutnick had repeatedly resisted efforts by other administration officials to crack down on companies suspected of diverting Nvidia chips to China.
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The following day, Reuters reported that senior White House officials were discussing whether Lutnick should be pushed out. Lawmakers from both parties have also called for greater scrutiny of the Commerce Department's export-control enforcement.
The controversy centers partly on Megaspeed, a Singapore-based Nvidia customer whose executive Alice Huang has been suspected by US intelligence officials of having links to Chinese intelligence. Those suspicions have not been established as fact.
Rajkumar warned that Lutnick's removal or a reversal of his policies could have consequences for the semiconductor industry comparable to the Nvidia fallout itself.
His concern is that Washington could swing toward a much tougher approach to semiconductor exports, potentially extending restrictions beyond Nvidia's AI processors to other US chipmakers and silicon products.
Such a shift could further limit American companies' access to China, creating another headwind for semiconductor revenue in 2027. The possibility of broader restrictions is particularly concerning because it would compound the risk of weaker demand if AI infrastructure spending slows.
Valuations may not be enough to attract buyers
Despite acknowledging that valuations across many semiconductor stocks have become attractive, Rajkumar doubts investors will be willing to step in immediately.
The issue, in his assessment, is less about valuation than the visibility of future earnings. If companies are forced to reassess their AI-related growth assumptions while facing additional uncertainty over China exports, current analyst estimates could prove too optimistic.
Rajkumar said he would like to become more constructive on AI semiconductor stocks but intends to remain on the sidelines in the near term, while even positioning for further downside as the post-Jensen fallout unfolds.
His warning marks a notably more defensive stance from an analyst who has previously been bullish on the sector. Rather than viewing the developments as an isolated Nvidia crisis, he sees the potential for a broader reassessment of the AI investment cycle, semiconductor earnings and the industry's exposure to US-China tensions.
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