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Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) stock just saw one of its strongest four-day runs in years. Shares closed at $293.69 on Nov. 6 and traded near $368 as of this writing, a gain of about 25% in four trading sessions.
That sort of rise is rare for the artificial intelligence chip designer. Going by daily closing prices, the stock has climbed more than 20% over four trading days in only six other periods since 2009. The latest one was in September 2025.
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And even after the jump, shares are around 24% under their record close of $481.57 on June 2.
How did the stock do after the six earlier surges? Mostly, it kept rising. But I think the jump itself says less than it seems to.
Broadcom's earlier surges were in March 2020, three times in 2024 (June, September and December), and in April and September 2025.
Measured from the close on the first day each run crossed 20%, the March 2020 surge was followed by a gain of around 115% in the next year. The September 2024 and April 2025 surges did almost as well, with one-year gains of about 119% and 92%. The June 2024 and December 2024 runs came in lower but still strong, at around 45% and 51%. Only the September 2025 surge missed. A year later, the stock was around 2% lower.
But shares didn't get there without big drops along the way. After five of the six surges, the stock fell at least 10% below its surge-day close at one point in the next year.
The worst was after the December 2024 run. Shares lost as much as 35% before ending that year up around 51%.
These returns look impressive till you put them beside the stock's ordinary record. Across every trading day since 2009, buying Broadcom stock and holding it for a year delivered a median gain of around 39%, and shares were higher a year later about 89% of the time.
The median of the six surge results was about 71%. But five of the six came in 2024 and 2025 -- two years when it was tough to lose money in the stock no matter when you bought. Buying on any trading day from the start of 2024 through mid-November 2025 delivered a median one-year gain of around 64%, with shares higher 95% of the time.
Put another way, the surges mostly matched what the stock was already doing. Six data points can't prove much, of course. But this arguably looks more like a strong growth stock having strong years than a sign that one big jump leads to another.
The stock's valuation at the start of every run seems to have mattered more.
I measured each surge against Broadcom's non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share for the four quarters it had reported by then.
The three cheapest starts came before the strongest years. Shares cost around 10 times adjusted earnings in March 2020, about 36 times adjusted earnings in September 2024 and about 35 times adjusted earnings in April 2025. Each surge led to a one-year rise of 92% or better. The other three started at between about 40 and 59 times adjusted earnings and climbed 51% or less. The priciest start, at about 59 times adjusted earnings in September 2025, was the only one to lose money.
Today's starting point sits between the two groups. At roughly $368, Broadcom trades at about 38 times its adjusted earnings for the past four reported quarters.
Of course, that price-to-earnings ratio can drop quickly when earnings grow this fast. Broadcom's adjusted earnings per share for the last four reported quarters came to $9.76, about 55% more than the four quarters it had reported by the September 2025 surge. And growth is picking up. Adjusted earnings per share climbed 96% year over year to $3.32 in the fiscal third quarter of 2026 (the period ended Aug. 2, 2026), up from 54% growth in the fiscal second quarter.
In the end, the four-day jump by itself doesn't say much about where Broadcom stock heads next. But at about 19 times analysts' consensus earnings estimate for fiscal 2027, today's price looks fair to me for a company whose earnings are growing this fast.
Even after the jump, I'd consider buying shares near $368. I'd just do it in stages, because the stock dropped at least 10% at some point after five of the six earlier surges.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Broadcom Stock Just Jumped More Than 20% in 4 Days. It Has Done That Only 6 Other Times Since 2009. was originally published by The Motley Fool
