What Could Lift Fox Stock? Trefis Team Thu, November 12, 2026 at 5:09 PM EST 4 min read ^GSPC -0.35% ROKU 0.00% FOX -3.17% DIS -1.12% CMCSA -1.18% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
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Fox (FOXA) stock gained 7.6% in the month to November 10, 2026, while the S&P 500 fell 3.6%. The latest quarter makes that move hard to judge: advertising revenue rose 47% in fiscal Q1 2027, led by the FIFA Men's World Cup broadcast and political ads. Fox's fiscal year ends in June, so that quarter ran from July to September 2026. So where in Fox's business would a further gain have to come from?
All Of Fox's Upside Comes From Higher Sales
In a three-year scenario on Fox's own figures, which predate its Roku deal, all of the gain would come from selling more to advertisers and to the distributors that pay fees for its channels. Fox completed its $22 billion Roku purchase on November 6, so the November 10 price includes Roku while these figures do not. The scenario grows revenue each year at 85% of the 9.0% rise Fox posted over the twelve months to September 30, 2026, a period that includes fiscal Q1 2027 and its World Cup broadcast. It holds the P/E at today's level and the net margin close to today's, both Trefis assumptions. On those assumptions, Fox stock would be worth about 23.8% more in three years than at the November 10 close, before dividends.
With the P/E unchanged, revenue growth accounts for more than all of that gain, though a little of it is lost to the slightly lower margin.
For that gain to arrive, Fox's two large businesses would have to keep growing. Television brought in $9.67 billion in fiscal 2026, up 3.7%. Cable Network Programming generated $7.35 billion, up 6.0%.
In fiscal Q1 2027, cable distribution revenue, the fees distributors pay, rose 10%. Management put the increase down to higher rates on affiliate renewals and a net gain in subscribers. A newer service, Fox One, made a meaningful contribution to that gain, and management said about 97% of its new subscribers have no cable subscription.
Tubi, Fox's streaming service, grew revenue 35% in the quarter on 23% more viewing time. Management said that growth was continuing into fiscal Q2 2027.
The biggest jump came from events: advertising in the Television business rose 60%, which management put down to the World Cup and early midterm political ads. Management also cautioned that political advertising rises with the election cycle every couple of years, and that Fox One's subscribers will rise and fall with sports seasons. Fox gave no revenue forecast for fiscal 2027.
How Does Fox's Upside Change Under Other Assumptions?
Each row below changes one assumption and keeps the rest:
Net margin of 11.0% in year three instead of 11.2%
Trefis set the scenario margin below today's because Fox's net margin over the latest twelve months, 11.3%, is above the 11.0% it averaged over the twelve-month periods ended September 2023 to June 2026. Revenue growth has swung: the latest 9.0% came after 14.9% in the twelve months to September 2025. A year earlier, revenue fell 4.0%.
On its own, each assumption could miss this far before three years of owning the stock return nothing: revenue growth could slow to 0.26% a year, against the latest 9.0%. The net margin could slip from 11.3% to 9.1%. The P/E could fall from 14.0 to 11.3, a level the stock traded below as recently as the end of June 2025.
When Fox reports its fiscal Q2 2027 results, expected in February 2027, the measure to watch is Fox's distribution revenue, the part of its sales that management tied to rates and subscribers.
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