A nor’easter is expected to lash the I-95 corridor with heavy rain and gusty winds beginning Thursday, while dumping the season’s first significant snow across higher elevations of upstate New York and northern New England into the weekend.
A strong ridge of high pressure building over the western US will help colder Canadian air push south into the Northeast while warmer air remains across the West.
The contrasting air masses will help provide the atmospheric lift and upper-level energy needed to support a strengthening area of low pressure, setting the stage for the late-week storm.
Rather than a typical El Niño-driven weather pattern, this setup is being influenced by the polar jet stream.
A pronounced dip in the jet stream will allow colder air to plunge southward, helping an area of low pressure develop somewhere between the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley before moving toward the East Coast.
By Thursday, the area of low pressure began moving toward the Northeast.
Showers grazed parts of the I-95 corridor, while Vermont, New Hampshire and portions of upstate New York began to see snow.
By Thursday night, the area of low pressure is expected to approach the New Jersey coast, bringing periods of heavy rain to Philadelphia and New York City.
The rain will then spread farther inland across Pennsylvania and into upstate New York.
It is expected that travel impacts could escalate late Thursday into Friday as the winds pick up, and the rain becomes heavier.
Earlier Thursday afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Tornado Watch and Tornado Warnings across portions of New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania.
The NWS said that there was a confirmed tornado in New Castle County, Delaware, and parts of New Jersey experienced tornado-producing storms.
In response to the developing threat, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Level 2 out of 5 severe storm risk for portions of the Northeast, including Philadelphia and Central New Jersey. A broader Level 1 out of 5 risk was in place for the entire New York City metro area.
The main threat of these severe outbreaks will be isolated wind gusts, small hail and possible tornadoes. The overall threat is limited, with most storms expected to remain below severe levels. Cooler air will move into the area and end the thunderstorms quickly.
There is now a Tornado Warning for John F. Kennedy Airport, along with Queens County, New York.
By Friday, the area of low pressure is expected to track northward, roughly parallel to the East Coast, with the center of the storm positioned south or near Long Island.
As pressure falls, winds will increase, helping the system take on the characteristics of a more traditional nor’easter.
While this is not expected to become an especially powerful storm, strengthening northeasterly winds could bring periods of unsettled weather to coastal areas.
As the developing storm moves northward, brisk northerly winds will also pull colder air across the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes.
The sharp contrast between the cold air and warmer lake waters will help trigger a notable lake-effect snow event beginning Friday and potentially lasting into the start of the weekend.
Across the Northeast, snow will spread across portions of upstate New York, southern Vermont and New Hampshire. However, temperatures are expected to hover near freezing in some locations, which could result in wetter, heavier snow and lower-than-average snow ratios.
Precipitation will vary depending on elevation and location, with some areas seeing a mix of rain and snow, while higher elevations are more likely to experience periods of accumulating, heavy, wet snow.
The storm is expected to reach its peak intensity Friday night as colder air funnels into the region.
According to FOX Forecast Center, the storm’s impacts will largely depend on how quickly the system moves offshore and how much colder air can filter into the region.
If the nor’easter is close enough to the coast, it could boost snow totals higher than expected. If the nor’easter moves farther away from the coast, the snow will end quicker.
However, New York City is expected to dry out by late Friday, while Boston could see periods of rain and gusty winds throughout much of the evening.
Snowflakes could begin mixing in closer to the coast, but no significant accumulation is expected.
The highest snow totals are expected across climatologically favored higher elevations, including the White Mountains of New Hampshire and Maine, the Green Mountains of Vermont, the Adirondacks in New York and parts of the Appalachians in West Virginia and Massachusetts. These areas could see 5 to 8 inches of snow.
Meanwhile, widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible across the Allegheny Plateau in New York and Pennsylvania.
Outside higher elevations, snowfall totals will generally remain below 3 inches, with amounts decreasing farther south.
Some snow is expected across valley cities. This includes cities such as Albany and Binghamton, New York, Burlington, Vermont, Manchester, New Hampshire, and Augusta, Maine.
Winter Storm Warnings are in place for the Adirondacks and the higher elevations of the Green Mountains in Vermont.
No snow accumulation is expected across major population centers along the I-95 corridor south of Maine.
Beyond the Northeast, portions of the Great Lakes region could also see significant snowfall as persistent winds blow colder air across the warmer lake waters.
According to FOX Weather, Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, such as Lake Superior, could see the most substantial accumulations.
Persistent northwest winds off the lake will help generate several inches of snow, with totals potentially exceeding half a foot in some locations.
Farther south, across extreme northern Indiana near Lake Michigan, northerly to north-northwesterly winds could direct a long band of rain and snow into extreme northern Indiana.
This includes South Bend, Indiana, where 1 to 3 inches of snow may accumulate.
Along Michigan’s Lake Michigan shoreline, bands of snow pushing inland could bring periods of accumulating snowfall.
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Most areas could see 1 to 3 inches, although more concentrated bands north of Grand Rapids could produce 3 to 5 inches.
By Saturday, the storm is expected to pull away toward the Canadian Maritimes.
However, lingering moisture wrapping around the system, combined with colder northwest winds, could keep snow showers going across parts of the Northeast.
Snow showers could stretch from Maine southward through the Appalachians, including portions of upstate New York and central Pennsylvania. Most of the precipitation is expected to taper off by Saturday morning as the system continues moving farther away.
