Is Intel Stock Paying You Enough For The Swings? Trefis Team Thu, November 12, 2026 at 12:32 PM EST 3 min read INTC -1.08% ^GSPC +0.09% AMD +4.60% NVDA -4.78% QCOM +0.73% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
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If you own Intel (INTC) or plan to, the rest of your money probably tracks the stock market already. Intel has not moved quietly beside the index. The company's shares closed at $62.50 on November 11, 2026. That price is less than half their June 22 close of $140.94. So, has Intel paid you enough to sit through rides like that?
Intel Has Paid You Less For Each Swing
Over the five years since November 3, 2021, Intel stock returned 6.1% a year including dividends. The S&P 500 returned 11.9% a year over the same period. Intel's annual volatility, the typical size of its swing over a year, measured 57.5% across those five years. The index recorded a volatility of 17.1%.
Dividing each yearly return by its volatility shows how much return each unit of swing has earned. Intel recorded a score of 0.106, compared with 0.696 for the S&P 500. Over those five years, you were paid far less to sit through Intel's swings than to hold the market.
How Big Are Intel Stock's Swings Now?
During the year to November 11, 2026, a $10,000 holding in Intel gained about $207 on the average day the S&P 500 rose. The index itself rose 0.659% on those days, meaning Intel moved about three times as far. On the average day the index fell, dropping by 0.626%, the same Intel holding lost about $157. That decline was two and a half times the index's own fall.
Intel's volatility over that year was 84.7%, against 13.7% for the S&P 500. Measured across every trading day of the year rather than only the average up or down day, Intel tended to move about 3.24% for each 1% the index moved. Day by day the two line up only loosely: their correlation, a score from -1 to 1 for how closely two sets of moves track each other, was 0.52.
Intel therefore adds to the market risk you already hold rather than steadying it. The stock has on average gone the same way as the market, only further.
What Is Happening In Intel's Business?
Intel is spending heavily on a manufacturing bet that has not yet paid off. Intel Foundry, which makes chips for Intel and for outside customers, reported an operating loss of $1.9 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, management said on the October 29, 2026 call. Management called 2027 an investment year, with gross capital spending up strongly and positive free cash flow probably out of reach.
Intel's two main businesses are also heading in opposite directions. Data center revenue was $7.3 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, up nearly 80% from a year earlier, and management said demand for those chips still exceeds supply. Yet management expects PC unit sales across the market to fall roughly 10% in 2027, with no lasting recovery until memory supply improves and pricing begins to normalize. Intel's own client computing revenue fell 5% from a year earlier in fiscal Q3 2026. Intel's data center revenue is the figure to watch at its next report, expected in January 2027.
If Intel keeps moving as it has over the past year, a day the market rises will likely lift your Intel holding by more than the rest of your money. A day it falls will likely cut it by more. If you already own other chipmakers selling into the AI infrastructure build-out, Intel adds more of that same bet rather than balancing it.
Does This Mean You Should Act On INTC?
Betting on a single stock is always risky, whichever way you lean. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds 30 quality companies in equal weight and has returned 105% since its September 2020 launch.
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