Dan Niles: Nvidia’s Next CEO Will “Set a Low Bar” for Earnings Michael Douglass Thu, November 12, 2026 at 12:04 PM EST 5 min read NVDA -5.27% Trade NVIDIA on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Jensen Huang resigned as NVIDIA's CEO and CFO Colette Kress became interim CEO, a day after Dan Niles predicted both.
Niles warns that an interim CEO will likely set a low bar, while analysts expect earnings per share to more than triple from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2028.
NVIDIA trades at about 14x forward earnings, near its three-year low, but it's only cheap if analysts don't cut their estimates.
Kress gives her first guidance on Nov. 17, and the bigger reset will more likely come from a permanent CEO, probably someone from outside the company.
NVIDIA (NVDA:NASDAQ) has a new CEO, at least for now. The company announced this morning that Jensen Huang has resigned after a week of reports about his affairs. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO while the board searches for a permanent one.
Dan Niles saw it coming. On Wednesday night, the Niles Investment Management founder posted on X that "Jensen is gone at $NVDA, potentially by tomorrow morning with my guess the CFO as interim-CEO."
His next line is the one I'd worry about: "The new interim CEO will probably want to set a low bar and the stock could trade at a single digit PE vs 11x currently on CY26."
Kress gets her first chance to set that bar on Tuesday, Nov. 17, when NVIDIA reports its third quarter.
Analysts have spent the year raising it. They expect normalized EPS to more than triple, from $4.77 in fiscal 2026 to $15.91 in fiscal 2028 (the year ending January 2028):
That fiscal 2028 figure rose 25% between the end of June and late October, after management's August guidance. So an interim CEO who guides below the Street could fall a long way short.
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On those numbers, the stock looks like a bargain. NVIDIA trades at about 14x forward earnings, right at the bottom of its three-year range and less than half its 30x average:
But that multiple depends on the estimates. As Bloomberg's Ryan Vlastelica said on Wednesday's Bloomberg Tech podcast, "If we see more downward revisions to estimates, then the stock will start appearing more expensive." A lower bar and a single-digit multiple together would mean a much bigger drop than either one alone.
Still, I'd be surprised if Kress cuts fiscal 2028 on Tuesday. She's been NVIDIA's CFO since 2013 and has delivered its outlook on call after call. On the Aug. 26 call, management guided for fiscal 2028 revenue to rise about 70% and said supply was the limit. Analysts' revenue estimates are right there with her:
Analysts see revenue climbing from $412 billion in fiscal 2027 to $691 billion in fiscal 2028. And as Melius Research's Ben Reitzes said on CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime on Monday, NVIDIA has "orders for 70% growth for next year." A big cut there would mean Kress walking back her own guidance, even though customers' orders back it up.
Kress can still lower the bar in the weak spots investors already know about. Management expects gross margin to bottom at 71% to 72% in the January quarter as memory prices climb, down from 75.0% in the July quarter. And Baird's Tristan Gerra, who downgraded the stock on Nov. 11, expects a new ban on H200 exports to China and wrote that "this could translate into a $5B write down." I suspect an interim CEO would happily fold both into a cautious guide.
The bigger reset will likely wait for her successor. The board will consider candidates from inside and outside a company that never had a natural successor lined up. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. expects Kress to serve about a year before an outsider takes over. And a CEO from outside has every reason to set a low bar with a first guide.
Niles's own analogy points the same way. After Steve Jobs took medical leave in January 2011, Apple's revenue grew 66% in fiscal 2011 and 45% in fiscal 2012, and growth didn't slow below 10% until fiscal 2013. Niles thinks NVIDIA's product pipeline will carry it for about two years.
Bottom line: Niles called the exit, and I think he's early on the low bar. Tuesday's guide will still be based on the orders Kress already has, and at about 14x, the stock already reflects plenty of doubt about the years after that. Of course, if the January-quarter margin guide comes in below 71% or fiscal 2028's growth gets trimmed, the estimates under that 14x start falling, and Niles's single-digit multiple gets a lot closer.
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