What Will Decide Home Depot Stock Over The Next Six Months? Trefis Team Thu, November 12, 2026 at 10:45 AM EST 4 min read HD -0.27% ^GSPC +0.14% AMZN +1.20% WMT +0.17% COST +0.82% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
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Home Depot (HD) stock returned 19.5% between October 13 and November 11, 2026, while the S&P 500 lost 2.3%. The worry for a holder is whether that rebound lasts. Management has already committed to one thing: in August 2026, it reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance while flagging fuel, energy and tariff costs it had not planned for. Below are the events most likely to move Home Depot stock over the next six months.
Lowe's quarterly report, a read on the home improvement demand both companies serve
Expected November 2026 (Lowe's third-quarter report)
Unplanned fuel, energy and input costs against the fiscal 2026 margin guide
SRS sales growth and new SRS branches (SRS is Home Depot's distribution arm for Pros)
Home Depot is expected to report its next quarterly results in November 2026, the first of these events to land. On its August 18, 2026 call, management said the third quarter had started with demand in line with the second, while warning of frozen housing conditions and large, unplanned cost pressure. The same quarter a year earlier brought in $41.4 billion of revenue, the base this report will be measured against. Management said sales to Pro customers rose on a comparable basis in the second quarter and outpaced sales to do-it-yourself shoppers. The measure to watch is comparable sales growth, which was 1.7% in the quarter ended August 2, 2026.
Costs Home Depot Did Not Plan For
Management is holding Home Depot's fiscal 2026 profit guide even though costs have risen beyond what it planned at the start of the year. In August 2026, management said rising fuel, energy and other product input costs would fully offset the tariff refunds it received in the second quarter, and that tariff changes in July added to that pressure. Management still guided to an operating margin, before adjustments, of about 12.4% to 12.6% for fiscal 2026, part of the full-year guidance it reaffirmed on the call. Gross margin is the measure to watch in the November 2026 report, and management expects the fourth-quarter rate to be about flat with a year earlier. The November report covers the third quarter, so it will not show that rate; a year earlier, the third-quarter gross margin was 33.4%.
No scheduled event marks a turn in weak housing, and management said housing affordability is already pressuring demand for larger home improvement projects. On the August 18, 2026 call, management said homes had been changing hands at very low levels for four years, with no sign yet of a turn. Larger discretionary projects remain under pressure, management said, even though transactions over $1,000 rose 2.4% from a year earlier in the second quarter. Management also said that when interest rates step down, some life comes back into housing. Big-ticket transactions, which management reports on its quarterly calls, are the measure to watch in November 2026.
Could You Hold Home Depot Through These Dates?
Within the past year, holding Home Depot meant sitting through a 28.1% fall in the share price from the February 13, 2026 close to the October 5, 2026 close. If a fall of that size would push you to sell, the position is bigger than one you could hold through these dates. The size that fits is one you could leave alone through a repeat while Home Depot reports on its costs, its margin guide and the housing market.
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