How Much Should One Number Worry Qualcomm Stock Holders? Trefis Team Thu, November 12, 2026 at 10:13 AM EST 3 min read QCOM +2.93% AAPL +0.66% AVGO +4.57% NVDA -5.45% INTC -1.51% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Qualcomm's (QCOM) phone chip sales are the one number a holder should watch most closely right now. Management figures show that Qualcomm sold $5.1 billion of phone chips in fiscal Q4 2026. That accounts for more than half of the $9 billion generated by the entire chip business. During a November 4 call, management said it expects those sales to decline in the December quarter. So what is holding Qualcomm's phone chip sales back?
Qualcomm Is Losing Apple As Phone Demand Stalls
On the November 4 call, management cited the loss of Apple as a phone chip customer, and the damage memory prices are doing to the size of the phone industry. For the December quarter, it forecast phone chip sales down by a mid-single-digit percentage from fiscal Q4, as growth in Android sales is offset by the continued ramp down in Apple product revenue.
Management is not counting on the broader market for help. The company plan assumes global handset units will be flat to down in calendar 2027. One drag should fade, however. Management said part of the hit to chip sales in 2026 came from phone makers drawing down their channel inventory, and it does not expect that in 2027.
How Far Has Qualcomm's Revenue Fallen?
Qualcomm has posted year-over-year declines in reported revenue for three quarters in a row. The drop deepened to 8.4% in fiscal Q4 2026, compared to a 4.0% decline in fiscal Q3. Over the full twelve months to September 2026 the decline is mild. Revenue slipped 2.6%, after growing 13.7% in the twelve months before.
The company also kept less of each dollar of sales. Qualcomm recorded a 13.1% operating margin in fiscal Q4 2026, against 25.9% in fiscal Q4 2025. Management said the December quarter, typically Qualcomm's strongest, is not expected to be its high quarter in fiscal 2027 now that Apple product revenue is ramping down.
Some of the worry already shows in the stock. A $10,000 holding in Qualcomm on May 13, 2026 was worth about $8,360 by November 11. Over that same window, the same sum in the S&P 500 grew to about $10,290.
What Could Ease The Worry For Qualcomm Holders?
Qualcomm's other chip businesses are growing fast. The automotive chip unit delivered its first $2 billion quarter in fiscal Q4 2026, with sales up 89% from a year earlier. Management expects non-phone chips to make up more than half of its chip revenue in fiscal 2027, and it reiterated a revenue target for its data center business of $5 billion that year. On the licensing side, Qualcomm has signed long-term license agreements with Apple, Huawei and Transsion. The company has no major phone maker renewals due for several years.
A holder should treat phone chip sales as a real but measured worry. They come from Qualcomm's largest business, and management sees no recovery in the phone market in 2027, yet the rest of the chip business is growing quickly. Phone chip sales in the December quarter, which Qualcomm is expected to report in February 2027, are the result to watch.
Want Income That Doesn't Hang On One Company?
Every single stock carries risks like these. The Trefis Income Solution spreads your money across 50 dividend stocks, each with at least 10 straight years of dividends, with a yield about 3x the S&P 500.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.
