Bitcoin Gained 7% in September, but NEAR and Arbitrum Reportedly Surged 187% and 137% Mike Barrington Thu, November 12, 2026 at 9:19 AM EST 4 min read BTC-USD -2.29% NEAR-USD -9.59% ARB11841-USD -8.54% MSTR -6.74% GC=F -2.30% Trade BTC on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
A cooler-than-expected inflation report triggered a short squeeze, as forced buying turned modest good news into a powerful crypto rally.
Bitcoin's gain rested on steadier ETF and corporate buyers, with spot ETFs drawing $2 billion in five days and Strategy adding 1,665 BTC.
Futures traders see a 64% chance of another Fed rate hike in October, threatening the altcoin rally that relied on short covering.
In September 2026, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) experienced a gain of about 7%. While the S&P 500 index barely changed and gold declined by more than 6%, many other major cryptocurrencies outperformed Bitcoin. Notably, NEAR (CRYPTO:NEAR) surged by 186.6%, and Arbitrum (CRYPTO:ARB) climbed 137.1%.
Bitcoin wrapped up the month at $83,995 on September 30. So, what led to renewed interest in crypto in September, and why did so much of that investment flow to smaller coins rather than Bitcoin?
According to Santiment, the turnaround can be traced back to the August inflation report, which came in lower than anticipated. This unexpected news briefly pushed down Treasury yields, making cash and bonds offer lower returns. As a result, some investors redirected their funds toward cryptocurrency.
The crypto market reacted more dramatically than the stock market because many traders had taken short positions, expecting prices to fall. When prices began to rise instead, those traders had to buy back coins to limit their losses. Additionally, exchanges liquidated borrowed positions once traders' collateral was depleted, leading to more buy orders and turning modest positive news into a powerful rally.
However, a rally fueled by short covering can lose momentum once those positions close. After that, price movement relies on genuine buyers, and Santiment data doesn't clarify how much of Bitcoin's September gain came from forced buying.
Bitcoin's recent rally saw many buyers eager to own the asset. During a five-day period from September 21 to September 25, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $2.4 billion, though daily inflows decreased from $999 million to $134 million.
Additionally, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), known for holding Bitcoin as its primary treasury asset, bought 1,665 BTC for $143 million in late September, bringing its total holdings to 847,666 BTC, valued at about $71.2 billion by month-end. These institutional and corporate buyers provided a more stable base for Bitcoin's rise compared to the forced buying that characterized smaller coins.
As market fears subsided, investors began reallocating capital into smaller coins, causing Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market to drop to 58.4% of the $2.88 trillion market cap. Other significant cryptocurrencies also outpaced Bitcoin during this period, with Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) up 9.8%, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) up 9.9%, and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) up 16.2%, per CoinGecko's 30-day data, which put Bitcoin's return at just 7.7%.
While triple-digit gains for smaller coins reflect volatility rather than underlying project strength, coins like NEAR, Arbitrum, and Zcash can swing wildly in both directions. Thus, a significant short-term return does not guarantee long-term potential.
Overall, Bitcoin is still down year-to-date, down 4.5% for 2026 and 26.7% over the past 12 months. September's performance appears to be a temporary bounce within a larger downward trend.
The surge in smaller coins may be the weakest part of September's recovery. Their significant gains largely came from a market heavily filled with short positions, and once those short trades close, forced buying should stop. In contrast, Bitcoin has stronger backing from institutional and corporate investors.
However, the relief from tightening interest rates may not last. Following the Fed's rate hike on September 16, futures traders currently foresee a 64% probability of another increase at the next meeting on October 27-28.
If Bitcoin's market share rises above 58.4% while NEAR and Arbitrum surrender their gains, it might signal an end to this rotation. Conversely, if Bitcoin continues to attract large inflows into spot ETFs while its market share decreases, we'll have to see if the smaller coins that outperformed Bitcoin in September 2026 can maintain their lead into October.
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