Cathie Wood Bought Cerebras Before It Fell 54%. Is She Wrong, or Early? Roxanna Maglangit Thu, November 12, 2026 at 8:17 AM EST 5 min read CBRS -2.98% SPCX -1.19% GOOGM 0.00% NVDA -9.01% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Cerebras is down 54% since June 30, when Cathie Wood's ARK Invest held 764,613 shares as a new position.
SpaceX, Alphabet, Kratos and NVIDIA, ARK's other second-quarter buys, are down 13% to 26% over the same stretch.
Analysts expect Cerebras's revenue to more than triple in fiscal 2027, and the stock trades at about half its average forward sales multiple since it listed.
Wood looks early on Cerebras, but a short seller's claim about how long its chips last is the risk to watch when it next reports.
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest files its next 13F by Nov. 16, and its last one hasn't aged well. Its 13F for the quarter ended June 30, filed Aug. 14 and still its latest, shows five stocks ARK bought new or added to. Cerebras (CBRS:NASDAQ), one of two new positions, is down the most since: 54%.
The other four, SpaceX (SPCX:NASDAQ), Alphabet (GOOG), Kratos (KTOS:NASDAQ) and NVIDIA (NVDA:NASDAQ), are down between 13% and 26% over the same stretch.
ARK held 764,613 Cerebras shares worth $169 million at June 30. That was 1.1% of its 13F stocks and its 27th-largest position. That 54% is the stock's move from its June 30 price. The filing doesn't show what ARK paid, or whether it still owns the shares.
Cerebras's margins have been shrinking, and in late October a short seller piled on. On Oct. 27, Cerebras jumped on a deal to put its systems on Oracle's cloud. The next day, Culper Research said on X that it's short the stock and that Cerebras's wafers "break down after just ~2 years in use." Cerebras's own draft IPO filings had put that life at three to five years.
UBS cut its target to $250 from $330 on Nov. 2 and kept its Buy rating. Cerebras then kept falling as AI stocks sold off in early November. Cerebras hasn't publicly answered Culper's claim yet.
TIKR tracks 11 analysts on Cerebras. How many say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Cerebras, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Cerebras' Analyst Ratings
Cerebras was one of ARK's smaller buys, and the rest have struggled too. SpaceX, also new in the quarter, was ARK's third-largest holding at 5.0% of its 13F stocks, and it's down 18% since June 30. Its third-quarter revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion. But management guided fourth-quarter capital spending to $35 billion to $40 billion as it builds out data centers.
ARK added 45% to its Alphabet shares, and that stock is down 18% as well. Alphabet's free cash flow came in at negative $9.1 billion in the third quarter, a figure that included a $5.2 billion EU fine payment. ARK added 34% to its Kratos shares, and Kratos is down 26%. Early this month, KeyBanc cut its target while still seeing 83% upside.
NVIDIA has held up best: it's down 13%, and ARK had added 33% to its shares. That's even with its board hiring Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to investigate CEO Jensen Huang. At about 14x forward earnings, it's also the cheapest of the four that have earnings to price.
ARK bought Cerebras for its growth, and analysts still expect plenty of it. They see revenue more than tripling to $2.96 billion in fiscal 2027, then more than doubling again in fiscal 2028:
Investors are paying far less for that growth than they did in the summer. Cerebras trades at 17x forward sales, about half its 35x average since it listed:
(It was 63x in early June, and touched 13x on Nov. 5.)
Analysts have trimmed their targets, but by far less than the stock has fallen. The consensus target from 11 analysts is $245, down from $294 in June:
That's 143% above the last close, and even the lowest target, $175, sits well above the stock. At $245, Cerebras would trade at about 40x forward sales on today's estimates. That's a little above its average since it listed and well short of its June peak.
I'd call Wood early on Cerebras. The stock trades near its lowest multiple since it listed, while analysts still expect revenue to more than triple in fiscal 2027. And it would only need a little more than its average multiple to reach the consensus target. It's also a small bet for ARK, at 1.1% of its 13F stocks against 5.0% in SpaceX.
The risk is Culper's claim. If Cerebras's wafers really wear out in about two years, customers get far less for their money. Then no sales multiple looks cheap, because the revenue may not last.
Cerebras is expected to report in the coming days, its first real chance to answer the short seller. ARK's next 13F, due by Nov. 16, will show whether it still held the shares on Sept. 30. That filing stops a month before the short report, though.
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what Cerebras could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
