Why Nvidia Stock Was Downgraded to Hold by a Top Analyst and Price Target Halved to $200 TipRanks Wed, November 11, 2026 at 4:17 PM EST 2 min read NVDA +3.17% Trade NVIDIA on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Nvidia (NVDA) received a rare downgrade from Robert W. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra, who raised concerns about the chipmaker's data center growth outlook. The five-star analyst cut his rating on Nvidia to Hold from Buy and slashed his price target to $200 from $500.
Gerra sees less visibility into Nvidia's data center demand for 2027. He also lowered his estimates for 2028 and later years. Supply issues remain the main concern, though signs of softer demand have added to the risks.
Gerra expects AI spending by large cloud firms to grow by 40% or less in 2027, a slower pace than in prior years. At the same time, demand for Nvidia's H300 chips continues to exceed supply, with long lead times.
Get 75% Off TipRanks Premium and unlock powerful investing tools to make smarter, more confident investment decisions
Gerra also flagged risks tied to U.S. export rules and China-linked demand. He outlined two key concerns. First, a new U.S. ban on H200 chip sales to China could lead to a $5 billion write-down, as some chips have been shipped to Asian warehouses ahead of expected Chinese orders.
Second, tighter U.S. rules could close data center trade routes in Southeast Asia. Gerra estimates that sales channels exposed to these risks account for 10% to 30%.
While U.S. cloud firms could absorb some lost demand, Gerra noted that a sharp drop in China-linked orders could hurt Nvidia's sales in a single quarter.
Gerra also cited uncertainty about CEO Jensen Huang's tenure into 2027. Nvidia's board has opened an independent probe into reports that Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. The FBI is also investigating the matter.
The analyst expects Nvidia shares to remain in a "trading range until the dust settles." He said key factors to watch include the board probe, U.S. policy moves, FBI and Justice Department findings, and changes in China-linked orders.
Gerra is a five-star analyst on TipRanks, ranking #96 out of 12,555 analysts tracked. He has a 54% success rate and an average return per rating of 31.2%.
On TipRanks, NVDA has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 33 Buys and two Hold ratings. The average Nvidia price target of $317.83 implies 88.2% upside potential from current levels.
