Micron Stock Fell 30% in a Week. Bernstein Says It Could Nearly Double Nikko Henson Wed, November 11, 2026 at 2:24 PM EST 4 min read MU +12.61% QCOM +2.65% AAPL +1.73% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Micron Technology (MU) stock fell 29.7% between October 29 and November 5, closing at $656.39 as memory-demand and AI spending concerns pressured shares.
Qualcomm (QCOM) declined approximately 15.5% over the same period, while Apple (AAPL) warned that higher memory costs were affecting profitability.
Bernstein analyst Mark Li reiterated a Buy rating and $1,300 price target on November 4, implying approximately 98% upside from Micron's November 5 closing price.
Micron looks potentially undervalued if earnings forecasts hold, but its subsequent rebound and risks to memory demand make Bernstein's target an optimistic scenario.
Micron stock plunged nearly 30% between October 29 and November 5 as investors questioned whether the memory industry's extraordinary earnings growth could continue.
Despite the selloff, Bernstein analyst Mark Li reiterated his Buy rating and $1,300 price target in early November, suggesting significant recovery potential.
Japanese memory producer Kioxia issued a cautious profit outlook, raising concerns that the rapid improvement in memory industry profitability could moderate.
Meanwhile, fears of potential restrictions on data center construction pressured AI infrastructure stocks as investors reassessed future spending.
On November 5, Bloomberg reported that Micron had suspended work on a planned $4.5 billion semiconductor facility in Taiwan following a labor dispute.
Because the facility was not yet producing chips, the reported suspension represented a longer-term capacity concern rather than an immediate earnings disruption.
Qualcomm reported a 26% year-over-year decline in fiscal fourth-quarter handset chip revenue to $5.14 billion, while higher memory costs and weaker smartphone demand raised concerns about future sales.
Apple reinforced those concerns during its November 2 earnings call, when CFO Kevan Parekh projected December-quarter gross margins of 45% to 46%, compared with 47.9% in September, although the earlier quarter benefited from tariff refunds.
Parekh explained, "We expect most of that decline to be driven by higher memory costs."
Rising memory costs could eventually weaken smartphone demand, even as they support Micron's margins.
Micron's Mobile and Client Business Unit generated an 88% operating margin in fiscal Q4 2026, compared with 29% a year earlier, demonstrating how strongly favorable memory pricing supports profitability.
According to November 2 TIKR estimates, normalized EPS was projected to increase from $75.52 in fiscal 2026 to $176.50 in fiscal 2027, followed by $207.76 in fiscal 2028.
These forecasts suggest substantial earnings growth, although weaker customer demand or declining memory prices could lead to downward revisions.
Micron appears potentially undervalued based on its projected earnings growth, although its investment outlook depends on sustained memory demand and favorable pricing.
According to November 2 TIKR data, Micron traded at approximately 4.7 times next-12-month earnings, reflecting skepticism about the sustainability of its elevated profitability.
Bernstein's $1,300 price target implied approximately 98% upside from Micron's November 5 closing price and roughly 7.3 times the forward earnings underlying the November 2 valuation.
TIKR's October 28 data showed an average analyst price target of approximately $1,562, although those expectations predated the latest semiconductor selloff.
Micron management also stated in September that more than 75% of its fiscal 2027 output was already committed, supporting visibility into future demand.
Over the next 12 months, AI-related memory demand, contracted production, and sustained pricing could support earnings growth, while weaker smartphone sales and slower data center investment remain significant risks.
A low forward earnings multiple also carries risks for a cyclical memory producer because falling chip prices could sharply reduce profits.
Overall, Micron looks undervalued if earnings forecasts hold, but Bernstein's $1,300 target depends on strong memory pricing and continued AI demand. Following Micron's recovery to $824.79 on November 11, the implied upside narrowed to approximately 58%, making a near doubling less likely from that higher share price.
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what Micron could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
