Nebius Stock Dropped 30% in a Week. Is It Time to Sell or Load Up? Nikko Henson Wed, November 11, 2026 at 1:05 PM EST 4 min read NBIS +17.39% IREN +6.64% MSFT -2.46% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Nebius Group (NBIS) stock plunged approximately 30% from October 29 to November 5, closing at $120.37 before rebounding sharply ahead of earnings.
Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly tightening oversight of projects involving Nebius and IREN (IREN), raising concerns about data center delivery schedules and future agreements.
CoreWeave (CRWV) also declined approximately 28% during the selloff, highlighting broader financing and execution risks across AI infrastructure providers.
Nebius's November 12 earnings report could clarify whether its ambitious revenue projections justify the stock's valuation following its recent rebound.
Nebius Group (NBIS) stock plunged approximately 30% between October 29 and November 5, falling from $171.99 to $120.37 as investors questioned the cost and pace of AI infrastructure expansion.
The selloff accelerated after Bloomberg reported that Microsoft was tightening oversight of certain data center projects involving Nebius, IREN, and Nscale.
Microsoft is reportedly reconsidering projects it views as higher risk and debating additional agreements with third-party infrastructure providers.
The concerns spread across the sector, with IREN facing delays in Microsoft-related infrastructure deliveries and CoreWeave experiencing similar selling pressure amid broader financing concerns.
However, the report did not establish that Microsoft had canceled its existing Nebius agreements.
That distinction matters because Nebius has a Microsoft contract worth approximately $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion, with substantial remaining capacity deliveries expected during the second half of 2026.
Nebius also secured a Meta agreement worth up to $27 billion, comprising $12 billion in dedicated capacity and up to $15 billion in additional purchases under specified conditions.
Following the announcement, CEO Arkady Volozh emphasized the company's expansion strategy, stating, "We will continue to deliver."
Still, turning those agreements into revenue requires substantial investment.
Nebius raised $5.75 billion through convertible notes in August and secured a $3.5 billion Citi financing facility in October to support its infrastructure expansion.
These arrangements provide growth capital but increase the importance of completing projects on schedule and converting contracted demand into cash flow.
Nebius subsequently rebounded sharply ahead of its November 12 earnings announcement, reducing the discount available during the selloff.
Nebius appears potentially undervalued based on its projected revenue growth, although substantial execution risks make its valuation difficult to assess.
According to TIKR consensus estimates dated October 21, analysts expect revenue to increase from approximately $530 million in 2025 to $22.9 billion in 2028 as additional AI computing capacity comes online.
However, analysts have revised their projected 2027 loss to $6.16 per share from $4.87 in early August, highlighting the significant costs associated with expansion.
Nebius traded at approximately 5.4x forward sales on November 2, compared with its five-year historical average of 10.6x.
Its estimated multiple declined to approximately 4.6x at the November 5 low, although the subsequent rebound has increased the valuation.
The historical average also includes Nebius's former Yandex-era operations, making it an imperfect benchmark for today's AI infrastructure business.
Nebius is scheduled to report third-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on November 12.
Investors will be watching whether management maintains its $7 billion to $9 billion annualized run-rate revenue target for December, compared with approximately $3 billion at June 30.
Updates on Microsoft capacity deliveries, infrastructure spending, and financing requirements will be equally important.
Overall, Nebius appears potentially undervalued if its ambitious growth projections materialize, but the rebound has reduced its margin of safety. Strong revenue growth and timely capacity deliveries could support further upside over the next 12 months, while project delays and rising financing costs could pressure shares.
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what Nebius could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
