Nebius earnings preview: what to watch when Q3 results hit Thursday Investing.com Wed, November 11, 2026 at 1:08 PM EST 3 min read NBIS +19.13% MSFT -2.08% CRWV +26.92% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Investing.com -- Nebius Group NV (NBIS) reports Q3 before the market opens Thursday, Nov 12, 2026. The stock is trading at $159.10 (+18.73%) as of Nov 11, 12:34 PM EST, with a market cap of about $36.7B. It is still down 28% over 1 month and sits well below its $299.86 52-week high.
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The stock fell into the print on reports that Microsoft may scale back neocloud partnerships. A Sell-rated preview put fair value near $100, and AI debt financing has tightened. Options were pricing a ~20% implied move (Read more, Nov 11, 2026). Today's jump goes beyond the +2% sympathy move after CoreWeave's report, and the full catalyst is unclear. A sharp pre-print rally can raise the bar for the numbers.
Consensus is for revenue of about $901M in Q3, up from $582.3M in Q2. That is roughly 55% sequential growth. FinQL puts Q3 capex at about $7.1B, against BofA's $6.6B. Figures are as of Nov 11, 2026.
Some feeds label the EPS and revenue consensus (−67.28 EPS, 75.96B revenue) in rubles. Treat the currency label with caution and rely on the USD figures above.
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ARR versus guidance. Q2 ARR was $3.0B. Full-year guidance is $7–9B ARR and $3.0–3.4B revenue. That implies about $2.2B of revenue in the second half and an exit run-rate around 2.5x the full-year revenue rate (Read more, Aug 27, 2026). Q3 ARR and any reaffirmation of guidance are the credibility test.
Margins. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 41% in Q2, up from 32%. BofA expects roughly 40.7% in Q3 because new capacity adds cost before it earns revenue (Read more, Nov 11, 2026). A drop below the high 30s would suggest the ramp is costlier than modeled.
Capex and funding. Debt was $10.2B at the end of June. The company has since closed a $5B convertible, and BofA expects an $18B raise in 2027. Customer prepayments ($9B so far, covering 50–60% of capex) are the offset. Watch for new prepayments and funding details, since dilution is a core bear argument.
Contract flow. Q2 brought four deals averaging over $1B each, including a Meta deal reported at $12–15B. New large contracts, or any customer-concentration commentary, would address the Microsoft worry.
Token Factory. Managed inference ARR was above $100M against a $250M year-end target. It is the higher-margin, asset-light part of the story.
Bull case: Nebius beat Q2 revenue and posted a 32% price reaction. Revenue estimates are flat while the pipeline is contracted. Analysts are broadly Buy-rated, with a $276–278 median target.
Bear case: Losses are widening on interest and depreciation, and fair value upside reads −23% on FinQL's model (as of Nov 11, 2026). Capex of about $7–8B per quarter keeps funding needs high. After today's rally, in-line results may not be enough.
The last four reactions were −14%, +11%, +23% and +32%. With a ~20% implied move, the reaction will likely hinge on ARR and capex funding rather than on the headline EPS.
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Nebius earnings preview: what to watch when Q3 results hit Thursday
