Nutanix Stock Down 15%: Is Slower Growth Really The Supply Chain? Trefis Team Wed, November 11, 2026 at 12:08 PM EST 4 min read NTNX +2.53% ^GSPC +1.49% AVGO +7.32% HPE +7.78% MSFT -2.25% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
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Investors in Nutanix (NTNX) have endured a frustrating year: the stock lost 14.8% while the S&P 500 returned 13.1%. Management points to the supply chain. How much that explains Nutanix's slower revenue growth depends on how rivals performed.
During its August 26, 2026 call, management said it achieved its fiscal 2026 results while navigating "significant supply chain constraints related to the pricing and availability of servers." Would that account survive a short seller's questions?
A Short Seller Would Point To Faster-Growing Rivals
Management's supply chain account holds up only partly. A short seller would start with Nutanix's rivals. Measured over each company's own latest four fiscal quarters, as reported, Nutanix grew revenue 12.4%, and four of its five peers grew faster: Dell Technologies, Broadcom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Microsoft. Dell grew 49.0%, but Dell also sells storage hardware, and higher hardware prices can lift a hardware seller's sales. Only Cisco Systems, at 11.8%, grew more slowly than Nutanix. A short seller would argue that a server shortage holding back the whole industry should have slowed most of them too.
On timing, the record is mixed. Revenue grew 18.1% in fiscal 2025 and slowed in fiscal 2026, the year management said hardware prices rose sharply. But management said that pressure came mainly late in the year. Growth had already slowed to 13.5% in the first quarter, then picked up to 15.9% in the fourth, from 10.0% in the third.
Management Also Expects Slower Renewal Growth
On the same call, management named a factor in its fiscal 2027 outlook that has nothing to do with servers. It said it expects the pool of contracts up for renewal to keep growing in fiscal 2027, but more slowly than in fiscal 2026, as the renewals base gets larger.
Put simply, existing customer renewals will add growth more slowly as Nutanix gets bigger. That limit comes from the size of the business, not from server supply.
Nutanix Expects A Slightly Thinner Cash Margin
For an owner, the place to look is cash. On its own measure, management's fiscal 2027 guide implies a free cash flow margin of 28% at the midpoint, against 29% in fiscal 2026.
Management said that guide includes two of its own decisions. Most customers still pay for several years upfront, and Nutanix expects to offer more of them annual payment plans or third-party financing. The guide also accounts for $33 million to $43 million of charges from a restructuring that affected about 5% of the global workforce.
Nutanix's Customers Kept Signing Contracts
Nutanix's best evidence for its own narrative is that customers kept signing. Management said the total value of contracts booked in fiscal 2026 grew in the high teens percent. Management said bookings grew faster than revenue partly because customers face longer waits for servers. Nutanix gives some customers later start dates on their licenses to match when their servers arrive. Annual recurring revenue grew 16% in fiscal 2026.
Profit improved too. The operating margin over fiscal 2026 reached 9.6%, against 6.8% a year earlier. That marked Nutanix's highest twelve-month operating margin since at least fiscal 2017.
Management said external storage is probably going to be its largest growth contributor in fiscal 2027. The product lets customers move to Nutanix while keeping their existing hardware. Assuming server constraints continue, the company guided for fiscal 2027 revenue of $3.18 billion to $3.23 billion, against $2.85 billion in fiscal 2026. Management said the midpoint means growth of 12%, the same pace as in fiscal 2026.
The server shortage accounts for part of Nutanix's slower growth: the contracts signed but waiting on hardware. Four of its five peers still grew faster over their own latest four quarters, and that is the gap a short seller would press. Revenue growth in Nutanix's fiscal first-quarter 2027 report, expected in November 2026, is the figure to watch.
Does This Mean You Should Act On NTNX?
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