The Dates That Matter Most For Casey's Stock Trefis Team Wed, November 11, 2026 at 10:46 AM EST 4 min read CASY -0.71% ^GSPC +1.17% MUSA -0.75% KR -0.45% ACI -1.52% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
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Casey's General Stores (CASY) stock has lost 19.3% in six months, against a 2.2% gain for the S&P 500. Holders appear to be betting that the chain keeps earning more on each gallon of fuel and selling more prepared food as it adds stores. Management will update its full-year guidance with its fiscal second-quarter results, expected on December 7, 2026. Below are the events most likely to move Casey's stock over the next six months.
Casey's fiscal Q2 2027 report, with updated full-year guidance
Casey's profit on each gallon of fuel, in the low 40s of cents in August, after 47.8 cents in fiscal Q1 2027
Murphy USA's fiscal Q4 2026 report, from a fuel-retail peer
Opening at least 120 stores, through acquisitions and new construction
Casey's Profit On Each Gallon Of Fuel
Casey's will show its profit on each gallon of fuel for fiscal Q2 2027 when it reports in December 2026, and in August, the only month management has reported for that quarter, that profit slipped. On its September 9, 2026 call, management said fuel margin was in the low 40s of cents a gallon in August, down from 47.8 cents in the first quarter.
Fuel is a big business for Casey's, bringing in about $448 million of its $1.24 billion in total gross profit last quarter. In fiscal Q1 2027, fuel margin was 6.8 cents a gallon higher than a year earlier, and fuel gross profit rose $73.4 million. So a change of a few cents a gallon matters. Fuel margin per gallon for the whole quarter is the number to watch in the December 2026 report.
Casey's plans to open at least 120 stores in fiscal 2027, split about evenly between acquisitions and new construction. On its September 9 call, management said the company was on track. New stores matter for what Casey's sells inside them. In the first quarter, prepared food and dispensed beverage earned a 59.3% gross margin, against 35.6% for grocery and general merchandise.
Management guides $800 million of spending on property and equipment for fiscal 2027, which includes remodeling the Cefco stores Casey's took over in the Fikes acquisition. The number of stores opened so far in fiscal 2027 is the figure to watch in the December 2026 and March 2027 reports.
The December Update To Casey's Guidance
Casey's plans to update its full-year guidance alongside its fiscal Q2 2027 results in December 2026, once the busiest season of the year is over. A strong first quarter has not moved that guide yet. Management said Casey's EBITDA rose 17% to $485 million in fiscal Q1 2027, but its September 8 release still guided 8% to 10% EBITDA growth for fiscal 2027.
Inside the store, management guides same-store sales growth of 2% to 5% for the year, after 3.2% in the first quarter. On the call, management also said lower-income customers were feeling slightly more pressure than others. It added that every income group it tracks still grew, and that most of the softness came from categories such as beer, snacks and cigarettes. The new full-year EBITDA growth range is the number to watch in that report.
Can You Hold Casey's Stock Through These Dates?
Holders of Casey's stock have recently been sitting through a deep fall. The stock lost 36.2% from its close on June 11, 2026 to its close on September 22. Its worst day in that stretch was September 9, the day of the last earnings call, when the shares fell 14.2%. The stock has since won back part of that fall, closing at $698.48 on November 10, up from $584.83 on September 22.
So far, Casey's is on track with its new stores, while its profit on each gallon of fuel was lower in August than in the first quarter. If you hold through the December 2026 report, when the full quarter's fuel margin comes out, keep the position small enough that a repeat of the June to September fall would not push you to sell.
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