Nvidia stock gets a rare Wall Street downgrade on supply issues Vahid Karaahmetovic Wed, November 11, 2026 at 7:26 AM EST 3 min read NVDA +4.12% Trade NVIDIA on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Investing.com -- Baird downgraded Nvidia stock to Neutral and more than halved its price target to $200 from $500, saying a lack of visibility into 2027 data center demand, mostly tied to supply constraints, and uncertainty over U.S. government action and the CEO's tenure will keep the stock range-bound.
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Analyst Tristan Gerra delayed his 2027 data center forecasts and trimmed his 2028 and later estimates. Hyperscaler AI capital spending could slow to 40% growth or slightly less in 2027, he wrote, with supply issues "mostly the reason" but also very recent signs of softer demand.
The downgrade comes after Nvidia's shares fell sharply earlier this week following reports that CEO Jensen Huang had an affair with Alice Huang, an executive at Singapore-based data center company Megaspeed, which U.S. intelligence agencies say has been passing information to Beijing. The stock recovered some ground in Wednesday premarket trading amid a broader rally in chip stocks.
Huang told staff in an email he had been "unfaithful" to his wife, and Nvidia's board has opened an independent investigation into reports that he was the target of a "foreign intelligence effort." President Donald Trump said the FBI is investigating.
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Gerra said he is staying on the sidelines until the uncertainties clear, including the outcome of an upcoming congressional hearing, government investigations, the revenue effect of channel adjustments and "uncertainties around CEO tenure."
He sees two likely outcomes. One is a new ban on H200 exports to China, which he said could translate into a $5 billion write-down given low-level shipping into Asia-based warehouses awaiting Chinese demand. The other is tighter export controls closing Southeast Asia data center loopholes, with possible Justice Department action against Megaspeed and resulting pre-emptive or enforced actions by other operators exposed to Chinese demand.
Demand for H300 chips well exceeds supply, so U.S. hyperscalers should absorb any weakness in Southeast Asian channels over 2027. But if China-related demand evaporates or Nvidia restricts shipments to the region, the revenue hit could land in a single quarter, with cash-flow-constrained hyperscalers unable to pick up the slack, the analyst noted. He estimates channels with exposure at 10% to 30%.
Some of these concerns are already in the valuation, Gerra said, but he thinks the stock will "at best stay in a trading range until the dust settles." He pointed to a reset in China-derived orders, completion of the board investigation, U.S. government actions and FBI and Justice Department conclusions as the key markers.
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