Sean Williams, The Motley Fool Wed, November 11, 2026 at 7:26 AM EST 5 min read ANTH.PVT SPCX +2.45% NVDA +4.25% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Five months ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), better known as SpaceX, rewrote Wall Street's record books with its $1.77 trillion initial public offering (IPO). In mere weeks, the developer of the Claude large language model (LLM), Anthropic (Nasdaq: ANT), may challenge SpaceX for the top spot with its own IPO.
Anthropic filed its public registration statement (S-1) on Oct. 26, starting the 15-calendar-day clock until it markets its upcoming debut and (likely) kicks off an IPO roadshow. With a lightning-fast growth rate that had Anthropic generating $65 billion in annual run rate sales as of July, there should be plenty of excited retail investors.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
But skepticism is also building ahead of this monumental IPO. On top of a laundry list of historical headwinds, a new red flag has emerged ahead of Anthropic's debut.
Though history is an ally of long-term-minded investors, it can be the foe of IPOs and hyped tech trends, at least over shorter timelines.
For instance, every game-changing tech innovation since the mid-1990s has navigated an early-stage bubble-bursting event. These bubbles form and subsequently burst because investors overestimate how quickly game-changing tech innovations will be optimized. Consistently overshooting the mark leaves hyped technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), prone to a bubble-bursting event.
Additionally, tech-focused IPOs don't have the best track record early on. Data from Truist Financial (NYSE:TFC) shows that the average year-one maximum drawdown for the 30 hottest tech-driven IPOs since May 2012 is 55%! SpaceX, which debuted after Truist released its data set, has endured a max drawdown of 54%!
History also says that premium valuations aren't well tolerated by Wall Street. For example, a trailing 12-month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 30 can alert investors to an unsustainable bubble. Anthropic's TTM P/S ratio should land between 75 and 100 at its IPO.
The bad news for retail investors is that historical precedent isn't the only problem for Anthropic. The bond market is increasingly signaling that trouble lies ahead for AI hardware providers, neoclouds, and hyperscalers.
While some companies are financing the AI infrastructure build-out and the development of LLMs with cash on hand, most are relying on debt in some capacity. When public companies issue debt, they do so at a par value of $1,000, which is commonly expressed as $1 on financial websites. When bond traders are confident a company will make good on its debt obligations, the bond price hovers around par value.
What we're seeing is several mid- and long-duration bond prices for AI companies plunging. The 2056 note SpaceX issued at par less than five months ago is trading at an all-time low of $0.83. Even Nvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) 2060 notes are trading at just $0.63.
The rout we've witnessed in bond prices, which has driven up yields, indicates tangible skepticism about the ability of AI companies to meet their debt obligations.
Given that Anthropic's operating model isn't yet time-tested or proven, this bond market malaise can sink Wall Street's hottest upcoming IPO before it has any chance to gain traction.
In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. If you'd invested $5,000 then, you'd be sitting on $2,322,526 today.*
Now, for the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. It's a key player in the $1.8 trillion space race, and with the stock recently sitting 20% off its highs, the window to get in early is closing fast.
*Stock Advisor returns as of November 11, 2026.
Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia, Space Exploration Technologies, and Truist Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Bad News: There's a New Red Flag Ahead of the Anthropic IPO was originally published by The Motley Fool
