“Demand Is Higher Than Supply”: AMD Has Ripped 141% in 2026. Is It Too Late to Buy? Wiltone Asuncion Wed, November 11, 2026 at 2:35 AM EST 5 min read AMD +6.14% META +0.91% OPAI.PVT INTC +1.90% NVDA -3.18% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
AMD stock is up 141% in 2026 on Meta's 6-gigawatt GPU deal and back-to-back record quarters, though it's still 21% below its October closing high.
AMD guided to about $17 billion of fourth-quarter revenue, more than Intel expects, and CEO Lisa Su says demand for AMD's chips is higher than supply as AI buyers line up a second supplier to Nvidia.
The main cost of those deals is warrants for up to 320 million shares to Meta and OpenAI, which vest as the GPUs ship and the stock climbs.
The stock trades near its five-year average multiple for a company guiding to more than 80% growth in 2027, so it isn't too late to buy, as long as Helios ships on time.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:NASDAQ) stock is up 141% in 2026, and the business has earned it: a giant GPU order from Meta Platforms (META:NASDAQ), two record quarters and a fourth-quarter forecast bigger than Intel's (INTC:NASDAQ).
It's still 21% below its Oct. 6 closing high after the post-midterm chip sell-off, though it jumped 13% on Nov. 9 on an Oppenheimer upgrade and a Google Cloud win as Nvidia (NVDA:NASDAQ) fell 4% on a board investigation involving its CEO.
TIKR tracks 53 analysts on AMD. How many say "Buy"?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AMD, along with Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AMD's Analyst Ratings
In February, Meta agreed to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD's Instinct GPUs. AMD gave it a warrant for up to 160 million shares at a penny each, just like OpenAI's in 2025. By late October, Helios racks were running at Meta, and AMD had agreed to invest $1 billion in Meta's stock offering. Meta needs outside cash: its $34.9 billion of third-quarter capex topped its $32.8 billion of operating cash flow.
Second-quarter revenue rose 50% to $11.5 billion. On Nov. 3, AMD posted record third-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion, up 45%, with data center up 97% to $8.5 billion.
It also guided to about $17 billion for the fourth quarter, so even the bottom of its range clears the top of Intel's $15 billion-16 billion forecast. Intel, up 57% this year, blamed a PC slowdown and a factory outage when it guided low on Oct. 29. Su is planning for PC shipments to fall by double digits in 2027. That hurts Intel more: PC chips are still its biggest business, at $8.1 billion last quarter, down 5%, while data center is now well over half of AMD's sales.
On AMD's third-quarter call, Barclays analyst Tom O'Malley asked Su whether demand would outstrip supply. Her answer: "It is true that demand is higher than supply." She expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027.
OpenAI has signed on for as much as 6 gigawatts of AMD's GPUs, and Anthropic for as much as 2 gigawatts in Helios racks. On Nov. 10, Anthropic's IPO filing showed AMD agreeing to buy $2.5 billion of its stock. Google picked AMD's EPYC chips to host its new TPU 8tx systems. Nvidia is still far bigger: analysts expect $692 billion of revenue in its year ending January 2028, about 7x AMD's 2027 consensus. Its board probe gives buyers another reason to want a second supplier.
Consensus normalized EPS more than doubles, from $8.08 in 2026 to $17.69 in 2027:
That 2027 estimate was $15.76 in late October, so Su's forecast is already the bar AMD has to clear.
Even after the run and the pullback, AMD trades at about 34x forward earnings. That's roughly its 35x five-year average and half its 67x June peak:
The Street's average price target was $272 a year ago. It's $659 now:
That's roughly 28% above the latest close, and even the lowest target, $540, is above the stock.
The catch is the warrants. Meta's and OpenAI's together cover up to 320 million shares, 19.5% of the 1.64 billion outstanding. If every one is issued, each existing share's claim on AMD's profits shrinks by about a sixth. But that only happens once Meta and OpenAI have bought 12 gigawatts and the stock has hit $600, the price the final tranches require.
Paying about its usual multiple for a company guiding to more than 80% growth looks reasonable, warrant shares and all. The risk is timing: Helios has to ship in volume, and customers need power for their data centers. The fourth-quarter report in early February is the first check: revenue under the $16.49 billion low end of guidance would point to Helios slipping.
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what AMD could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use.
