Jennifer Saibil, The Motley Fool Tue, November 10, 2026 at 1:15 PM EST 5 min read NVDA -5.83% Trade NVIDIA on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
From the all-time high it hit about a month ago, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has lost 30% of its value, and has lost its status as the most valuable company in the world.
This isn't the first time Nvidia stock has plummeted. Based on how it has performed historically, here's what is likely to happen next.
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It's hard to believe that just four years ago, Nvidia was a relatively obscure tech company making graphics processing units (GPUs) primarily for the video game and crypto-mining markets. But when the generative artificial intelligence (AI) revolution arrived, it had the proprietary technology to power that software ready and waiting, and it has provided the foundation beneath nearly all successful AI development.
Amid the rapid build-out of data centers capable of supporting powerful AI, Nvidia has exploded. Companies like Alphabet and Space Exploration Technologies are pouring billions into AI and data center development, and a big chunk of that spending goes to Nvidia. In fact, on SpaceX's most recent earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said his company would be "exclusive" to Nvidia, because "the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture."
SpaceX also just announced that it has committed funding for the biggest GPU financing deal ever, and since SpaceX is exclusively using Nvidia GPUs, that's where the money is going.
There's been a general tech sell-off over the past week as the market has digested the midterm election results. The S&P 500, which has become increasingly tech-weighted as its largest components are all tech companies, is down 2.6% since Wednesday, while the even more tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down 3.1%. The market anticipates that the incoming Congress could be more hostile to unfettered AI development than the current one, and several incoming governors, among them Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa, have already announced that they plan to place moratoriums on data center build-outs in their states until their legislatures act to put more robust protections and regulations in place.
Nvidia, though, has been getting hammered for a completely different reason: CEO Jensen Huang has admitted to having an affair with a woman who is now being investigated as an alleged Chinese asset. The company and the FBI are investigating, and it's likely that the stock has not seen its bottom from this development as of this writing.
There are no guarantees about what will happen next, especially because the spy-affair story is both unprecedented for the company and still developing. Meanwhile, Nvidia stock has been dropping like a brick. This isn't simply a case of a tech sell-off that we can expect to be followed by reviving investor confidence as external headwinds ease. But investors can look to history to get a sense of what's likely to come.
Let's look back at Nvidia's history over the past five years -- the period when it became more significant as part of the tech economy. Nvidia fell by at least 20% on five separate occasions over that span, including the current slump. Here's how much it fell each time, and where the stock was 12 months later, or for this year, through today:
Nov. 19, 2021, through Oct. 14, 2022. Total drawdown: 66%.12 months later: up 305%.
June 18, 2024, through Aug. 7, 2024. Total drawdown: 27%.12 months later: up 83%.
Jan. 6, 2025, through April 4, 2025. Total drawdown: 37%.12 months later: up 88%.
Oct. 29, 2025, through March 30, 2026. Total drawdown: 20%. Gains since then: 13%.
In each case, it didn't take too long for the stock to rebound fully and then rise much, much higher. Over the past five years, including all the dips, Nvidia stock has gained more than 500%.
Is the current slump any different? It's not likely. Nvidia is still at the center of AI development, and even if there are ramifications for Nvidia due to shifts in the political landscape or issues for Huang himself due to his affair, the company he co-founded still has loads of growth potential.
Right now, Wall Street is expecting that Nvidia will deliver 90% sales growth overall this year and 68% growth next year. It is possible that its revenue growth rate will underperform next year if government impediments to the data center build-out lead hyperscalers, neoclouds, and other tech players to trim back their orders, but Nvidia still makes the AI chips of choice for the biggest data center operators. History is on Nvidia's side, and even if it takes the company more than 12 months to bounce back from this correction, it's likely to happen eventually.
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Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Nvidia, and Space Exploration Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Nvidia Is Down 30% From Its High. History Says This Is What Happens Next. was originally published by The Motley Fool
