S&P 500 market positioning risks ahead of CPI and NVIDIA earnings Investing.com Tue, November 10, 2026 at 8:49 AM EST 5 min read ^GSPC +2.35% NVDA -2.31% US500 SOX Trade NVIDIA on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
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Investing.com -- Last week's selloff cleared some of the froth, but the S&P 500 has not returned to a clean slate. Global macro funds trade indexes, futures and swaps. According to Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data cited by Bloomberg, they have barely trimmed equity exposure. Retail investors and stock-picking hedge funds sold instead.
That split matters. Macro money is the part of the market that reacts to oil, rates and systematic signals rather than to company news. It still holds its positions heading into a crowded calendar.
The S&P 500 (US500) closed at 7,549.94 on Nov 9 (+2.35%) after a rebound from the Nov 5 low of 7,350.35. The Nov 5 session fell about 4.4%, from 7,688.62 to 7,353.73. The index sits -3.7% below its Oct 6 high of 7,844.52 (all figures as of the Nov 9 close).
Daily technical readings from the tools are mixed:
The index is trading between its 50-day and 200-day averages. The 200-day sits only about 0.3% under the Nov 5 intraday low. Dip-buyers defended the long-term trend, but they have not yet reclaimed the short-term one.
Three mechanical pressures could add to any decline, according to the note:
Systematic signals: Goldman's models have turned negative in about 60% of global equity markets. They imply roughly $28B of S&P futures selling over a week and $45B over a month.
Negative gamma: SpotGamma puts the zone across 7,000–7,550. Monday's close of 7,549.94 sits at its upper edge. Below that line, dealer hedging amplifies declines, and above it the pressure fades. This is why "larger swings in either direction remain likely."
Macro funds' funding costs: Financing spreads on S&P futures were stable last week, per John Marshall of Carrick Lane. That suggests macro funds have not yet been forced to sell.
The macro desks have been trading oil and rates, not artificial intelligence headlines. That raises the stakes for today's CPI report. Brent crude has recently been above $112, according to an October analysis. Read more (Oct 27, 2026)
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BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky argues the washout is incomplete. About 62% of S&P 500 members trade above their 200-day average, against under 30% at typical durable lows. Put-to-call demand is also well below the readings seen at the March and July bottoms. Fear has not peaked.
The PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) index closed at 10,033.9 on Nov 9 (+6.85%). That is still below its 200-day SMA of 10,855.30, and -20.2% over one month. Its daily summary reads Strong Sell, and ADX of 35.1 shows a firm downtrend. Krinsky notes that, historically, the 50 days after such a breakdown have averaged negative returns, even though sharp bounces sometimes follow.
Monday's surge was a relief rally, not a trend change. It also left chips still well short of their 200-day average.
The events fall in this order, and each can reset positioning:
Nov 17, after the close: NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings. Reuters says data center revenue is expected to rise more than 12% quarter on quarter.
Nov 18: VIX options expiry, and the reported pricing of the Anthropic (ANT) IPO.
Nov 20: monthly equity index options expiry.
Brokerages are split on the aftermath. Morgan Stanley called the selloff overdone and expects project push-outs rather than a derailed capex cycle. HSBC used the dip to add equity exposure and sees the Anthropic IPO as the main catalyst. Read more (Nov 9, 2026)
A JP Morgan Asset Management analysis points to a bearish counterweight. Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage data showed hedge fund gross exposure down 8% from its peak, the largest drop since 2016. The same analysis flagged around $4T of off-balance-sheet AI commitments. Read more (Nov 5, 2026)
The bull case rests on the index holding its 200-day average, oversold stochastics, and HSBC and Morgan Stanley leaning into the dip. The bear case rests on macro funds still being heavy, negative gamma and incomplete breadth washout. It also rests on chips staying below their 200-day average.
Downside: S&P 500 (US500) falling below 7,350.35, the Nov 5 swing low would put the 200-day SMA (7,328) in play.
Upside: S&P 500 (US500) rising above its 50-day SMA on the daily chart would be the first sign of a regained short-term trend.
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