MRNA +5.85% NVDA -4.19% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Shares of healthcare company Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) have been rising after the company reported its latest quarterly numbers and also boosted its guidance for the full year. That's often a surefire recipe for success.
Although the company's latest earnings numbers may have seemed strong, here's why I wouldn't buy the healthcare stock.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
In the September quarter, Moderna reported nearly $1.3 billion in revenue, up from just under $1 billion in the prior-year period. While Moderna has been launching new products, they're still related to COVID, including combinations of the flu plus COVID. All of its COVID-related revenue accounted for 98% of the company's top line, with the remaining sliver belonging to its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine.
This is not an exciting, high-growth area that typically would or should warrant this type of bullishness. The numbers may look good, but investors shouldn't forget that it's also going up against some weak comparables due to a downward trend. Five years ago, for instance, back when COVID vaccines were in high demand, the company's quarterly revenue for this same period was nearly $5 billion.
Investors should take that into account, because as impressive as the earnings beat may seem at first glance, the company's revenue is still down when looking at a longer stretch. More importantly, this is also not likely to drive the company's growth or its share price over the long term.
The company's updated guidance calls for revenue growth between 15% and 25% for the full year. At the high end, that would mean management expects revenue to come in as high as $2.4 billion. Meanwhile, this is a business whose market cap is now north of $110 billion.
The math doesn't line up, and it suggests a high degree of excitement and bullishness around the personalized cancer vaccine it's been working on with Merck, which has been showing positive results in clinical trials. While it undoubtedly has tremendous potential, it isn't approved yet, and there are operational challenges with mass-producing a personalized vaccine. Plus, it'll have to share in the revenue and profit with Merck.
When factoring in all that, on top of an enormous valuation, it makes Moderna a very risky stock to be holding right now. The excitement may be high, but if it fades, the stock could be due for a considerable correction.
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Moderna wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $341,966!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,146,819!*
Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 852% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 203% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of November 9, 2026.
David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Merck and Moderna. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Moderna's Q3 Numbers May Have Seemed Impressive, but They Aren't Enough to Make the Stock a Buy was originally published by The Motley Fool
