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Vanguard and Fidelity have a warning for retirement savers Ivana Pino · Senior Writer Mon, November 9, 2026 at 2:59 PM EST 4 min read Fidelity and Vanguard recently released long-term forecasts for stock market returns, and both companies delivered a sobering outlook for retirees: Long-term investment returns are either modest or expected to decline.
Vanguard's 10-year outlook suggests that U.S. stocks will deliver an average annual return between 4.8% and 6.8% over the next decade. Fidelity's 20-year forecast projects an annualized return of 5.8% for U.S. stocks, or about 3.2% after inflation. That compares with the S&P 500's historical average of roughly 10% since it launched in 1957.
For retirees, these projections could translate to slower growth over time and less money in their retirement accounts if these predictions hold or decrease.
Read more: How much do you really need to save for retirement?
If you don't follow the stock market but do invest in stocks or stock funds through a 401(k) or IRA, these projections shouldn't be ignored.
These forecasts suggest that your retirement savings may grow more slowly over the next decade or two, and while this could change over time, it may be a good time to revisit your long-term retirement strategy.
"While the stock market's trajectory is relatively unpredictable, it is possible that if its returns fall below historical averages, savers could be surprised by the pace of their retirement cushion's growth," said Brianna Rodgers, director of investor education at Madison Trust Company. "Those with certain expectations surrounding consistent market growth may see an impact in their savings when compounded over a set number of years."
Ultimately, most experts would agree that the stock market is unpredictable and could be affected by a range of future economic and geopolitical events that are impossible to foresee.
This doesn't mean you shouldn't take projections into consideration; it just means that instead of building a retirement plan that assumes the best-case scenario and maximum growth potential, you might want to consider building a savings plan that gets you to your desired savings target and funds your retirement lifestyle in your ideal timeline even if there are a few downturns along the way.
Read more: Retirement planning by age: The complete guide for your 20s-70s
Start by reviewing where your savings stand now and how they're projected to grow, then adjust as needed. Whether you plan to retire in a few years or have decades to go, these steps can help keep you on track.
Slower growth could mean that you could end up with less money for retirement than anticipated or that you may need to work longer to continue saving and give that money more time to compound.
"Those who are approaching retirement may consider postponing their retirement altogether if returns are markedly lower than anticipated. This can also translate to a complete overhaul regarding investment and withdrawal strategies, as well as overall lifestyle practices," Rodgers said. "Nevertheless, while market projections have the potential to be correct, their outcomes can never be guaranteed."
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Saving early and consistently is key. Review your budget and current contribution rate to determine if there's room to increase those contributions. Even if you can't do so immediately, some retirement plans offer automatic increase plans that gradually increase your contribution over time, typically after performance reviews or raises. That way you don't have to adjust your rate manually, and your contribution rate increases as your income increases.
If your employer matches contributions, make sure you're contributing enough to get the full match. It's one of the easiest ways to grow your savings.
Read more: How to catch up on retirement savings
Putting your retirement savings on autopay may seem like enough, but neglecting your strategy can be costly.
Your portfolio allocation, or the mix of different types of investments in your portfolio, can impact your returns over time and how much risk you're exposed to. Make it a habit to review your retirement portfolio allocation regularly as your timeline, goals, and risk tolerance change.
"Observing market forecasts can prove to be beneficial, but it's often not encouraged to base one's retirement strategies entirely off predictions," Rodgers said. "Rather, investors can take this moment to gauge their current saving habits and existing strategies. Consider evaluating whether your portfolio is appropriately diversified and whether any of your present investments put you in a position outside of your risk tolerance."
Read more: What to do with your retirement savings in a stock market sell-off
