Make New York Post a Preferred Source Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) celebrates a second-quarter touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in Madrid, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect We’re nearly through Week 9 of the NFL season, which had a bit of everything from thrillingly close finishes to impressively dominant blowout wins.
Last week, my colleague Erich Richter picked the Cowboys and Broncos as the two teams he was looking to find some value on to start the week.
In the case of the Broncos, it worked out as the line moved a half point from his bet at -2.5 and Denver covered on the road.
The Cowboys, well, they specialize in disappointment. They squandered a 10-point second-half lead and needed a late touchdown to beat the Colts, who are in the middle of a sell-off that would make Wall Street blush.
The goal remains the same this week as we try to target some teams that are undervalued entering the week.
We’re now halfway through the season and it is still tough to know what to make of the Browns’ quarterback situation. Deshaun Watson has the second-most fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives in the NFL this season, but he was out Sunday with a concussion.
Shedeur Sanders needed three quarters to find his rhythm but nearly won the game for Cleveland on a two-point conversion pass attempt in overtime that was off the mark.
The quarterback situation will be a question mark all season, but the pieces around that player, and the defense are the reason the Browns can compete.
Shedeur Sanders of the Cleveland Browns celebrates a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026. Getty Images The Texans are coming off a huge blowout win over the Chargers in Los Angeles and are road favorites in this game, but their other true road games this season (excluding the NFL London Game) were a loss against the Colts in Week 3 and a win over the Titans in Week 5.
The Browns seemed destined for a close finish every week and are 3-0 against the spread as home underdogs. I think their defense can bring the Texans’ offense into the mud to keep this game within the number.
The Bengals have only played three games at home this season, tied for the fewest in the NFL, and Sunday Night’s tilt will give one of these two teams the lead in the division. The Bengals and Steelers met once already this season in Pittsburgh and the Steel Curtain got the better of Joe Burrow late in the game to seal the win.
However, Burrow has been beyond impressive for the Bengals this season, leading the NFL in passing touchdowns (23) and passing yards per game (298.3).
The Steelers defensive line has been awesome — Pittsburgh is tied for third in the NFL with 26 sacks — but Burrow has been good against the normal rush and the blitz so far this season.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) prepares for a pre-snap during a game against the Atlanta Falcons in Madrid, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Ultimately, I don’t trust the Steelers to score enough points to keep up with Burrow and company.
The Steelers average 22.5 points per game, but that number is buoyed by the fact that they attempt the second-most field goals in the league. The Steelers are near the bottom of the league in total touchdowns and red zone scores, while the Bengals defense is top-five in the red zone.
If this game comes down to which team can get the ball over the goal line, I trust the Bengals much more to find a way to beat their opposing defense.
With the stakes a bit higher for this important division game and the Bengals on a nice roll lately, I think this spread could move by Sunday.
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
