Nvidia Isn’t Staying in The $180s for Long Alex Sirois Mon, November 9, 2026 at 12:45 PM EST 4 min read NVDA -5.07% CRWV +5.40% ORCL +2.48% NBIS +7.82% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
NVIDIA (NVDA) fell 21% in a month on Congress and CEO-probe worries, yet trades near 12x fiscal 2028 earnings estimates that keep climbing.
Vera Rubin is in full production at CoreWeave (CRWV) and Oracle (ORCL), supporting demand as NVIDIA beat EPS estimates six straight quarters.
Democratic data center curbs and a Texas moratorium threaten NVIDIA's $279 billion in supply commitments, guarantees and receivables if AI spending slows.
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NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) trades at $186.64. Post-midterm panic and a headline about its CEO sent the stock down, while earnings estimates kept climbing.
NVIDIA supplies the GPUs, networking gear and CUDA software that run most AI data centers. Last quarter, revenue rose 105.8% to $96.22 billion, and Data Center sales reached $89.02 billion. Two shocks caused the slide. First, Democrats won full control of Congress after running against unchecked data center expansion. Second, the board opened an independent investigation into reporting that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort.
NVIDIA trades at about 20x fiscal 2027 consensus EPS of $9.3124 and roughly 12x the fiscal 2028 estimate of $15.9146. Ninety days ago that fiscal 2028 figure stood at $12.8148, and analysts made zero downward revisions over the last 30 days.
The company has exceeded EPS estimates for six consecutive quarters. Most recently it posted $2.22 against a $2.09 consensus and guided third-quarter revenue to $108.0 billion. Vera Rubin is in full production at CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), Google Cloud, Azure, Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) and Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS). A $327.14 consensus target and $99.0 billion in remaining buyback authorization add support.
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Democrats with control of Congress are expected to push legislation that could curb the expansion of AI infrastructure, and Texas's governor-elect promised a moratorium on new data centers. Any slowdown spreads past the chipmaker to the power, thermal, and networking suppliers feeding those sites (we covered seven of them in a free AI infrastructure report). NVIDIA carries $279 billion in supply commitments, guarantee obligations of up to $108.5 billion, and DSO that extended to 60 days from 45. A capex slowdown would hit all three at once.
Governance risk adds pressure. Republicans are also scrutinizing Huang's ties to the alleged spy, and reports say companies linked to her kept buying Nvidia chips. With a beta of 2.247, NVIDIA amplifies every market shock.
Patient investors can wait for two answers. The third-quarter report is due, and the board says it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised. Neither the investigation's outcome nor actual legislation is known yet. A clean report plus a quick board resolution would ease both concerns. Concrete data center restrictions would add pressure to the outlook.
NVIDIA trades at $186.64. The $327.14 average target implies about 75% upside, though targets are estimates and carry no guarantee. The 62 covering analysts break down as follows:
The trailing P/E is 24. Shares fell 21.4% over the past month, while the S&P 500 (via SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY)) dropped 5.56%. Year to date, NVIDIA is up 0.31% against 7.83% for the index. The full-chain put/call ratio of 0.73 still leans bullish.
At $186.64, NVIDIA's outlook rests on a few near-term catalysts.
The path higher starts with the third-quarter report. Revenue guidance of $108.0 billion excludes China, and the quarter's consensus EPS is $2.4733. Another beat would refocus the market on underlying demand.
New legislation takes months to pass, while Vera Rubin shipments arrive every quarter. As the post-midterm shakeup cools, attention may return to earnings power that trades at only 12x next year's estimates.
Two things would break the thesis: findings that Huang compromised company secrets, or binding federal limits on data center construction. Watch the board's updates and congressional committee activity.
NVIDIA trades at 12x forward earnings after a quarter in which revenue doubled.
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