Broadcom Faltered for a Year, Dropping Nearly 20%: This Wall Street Analyst Team Says 140% Gains Materialize Within 12 Months Alex Sirois Mon, November 9, 2026 at 10:45 AM EST 6 min read AVGO +9.02% NVDA -5.04% AMD +12.02% META +5.19% MRVL +10.76% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Broadcom (AVGO) has sunk 40% from its peak despite record results, as margin pressure and funding worries overshadow its $115 billion AI revenue forecast.
Nvidia and AMD also tumbled over the past month, yet both remain up for the year, while Broadcom alone is down.
Fox Advisors' $715 target implies 143% upside, but the 51-analyst consensus of $533 is the more realistic benchmark.
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Shares of Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) currently trade at $293.69. The consensus target is $533.42, which puts the implied upside at 81.6%.
Broadcom designs custom AI accelerators, called XPUs, and the Ethernet switches that connect AI clusters. It also runs an infrastructure software business built around VMware. Last quarter its AI semiconductor revenue grew 221% to $16.7 billion. Management expects AI revenue of $115 billion in fiscal 2027.
That forecast drives the gap between the share price and analyst targets. Fox Advisors has the Street-high target of $715 with an Outperform rating. That means about 143% upside within 12 months.
Most of the damage came in the past month. Broadcom dropped 22% over that stretch, and 9.93% of it came in the latest week. Shares now sit about 40% below the 52-week high of $493.28. That is a steep drop for a $1.40 trillion company.
The results kept getting better through the slide. Q3 revenue rose 85.5% to $29.59 billion, and EPS of $3.32 beat the $3.24 estimate. Investors focused on quality instead. Management guided Q4 gross margin to about 73%, down from 75%, because lower-margin XPUs make up a growing share of sales. Funding is the other worry. Banks set up a $63 billion financing structure for computing capacity built with Broadcom, and the company says it may offer "modest residual value guarantees".
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The selling pressured the entire AI trade. UBS's chief executive said investors had been pricing the sector for "perfection" before its sharp correction. The S&P 500 fell 5.39% over the past month.
The most notable recent revision went up: Fox raised its target from $675. Its thesis has three parts. Custom-silicon lock-in with hyperscalers protects Broadcom from GPU price competition. Tomahawk and Jericho switches connect huge clusters. VMware drives operating leverage.
Anthropic plans 5 gigawatts of TPU deployments in 2027 and is on track to become Broadcom's largest XPU customer. OpenAI's Jalapeno chip targets 1.3 gigawatts in 2027. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) has a path to 3 gigawatts through 2028. Chief executive Hock Tan said, "Our demand actually exceeds this outlook, and we will work to improve supply."
The next checkpoint is the fiscal Q4 report. Management guided to revenue of $34.8 billion and AI revenue of $21.7 billion, and it expects EPS above $30 in fiscal 2028. Every gigawatt still depends on land, power and data center preparation, and management lists all three as bottlenecks (we rounded up seven companies providing that power, cooling and networking expansion in a free report here).
All of these stocks fell together over the past month. Over a longer window, Broadcom is the only one down for the year.
Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) lost 21.4% in a month but are up 0.31% year to date. With a current price of $186.64 against a $327.14 target, it shows 75.3% upside, a bit less than Broadcom. It has 59 bullish ratings, two Holds and one Sell.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) fell 30.47% in a month and is still up 109.68% this year. Its $449.04 price against a $659.77 target means 46.9% upside, the lowest in the group. It has 44 bullish ratings and 11 Holds.
Shares of Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) dropped 50.39% in a month and are still up 66.43% this year. Trading at $141.20 versus a $310.07 target, it shows 119.6% upside. It has 43 bullish ratings and four Holds.
Marvell has the largest consensus upside in the group, and Broadcom ranks second. Targets are estimates. Broadcom gave back its gains before the rout, while its peers are still well ahead for the year.
Broadcom trades at $293.69 against a $533.42 consensus from 51 analysts, an 81.6% gap. Year to date it is down 14.68%, while the S&P 500 is up 7.83%. Over one year, Broadcom is down 16.8% and the index is up 9.69%.
Shares sit below both the 50-day average of $347.89 and the 200-day average of $367.09. The forward P/E is 16, which is low for this growth rate. Price targets are still only one input.
The case for the stock improves if the fiscal Q4 report delivers the $21.7 billion AI guide and management confirms $115 billion for fiscal 2027 with operating margins near 66%. That path would make the consensus target look reachable.
The bear case gains weight if gross margins keep slipping, if Anthropic or OpenAI deployments stall on power or site delays, or if residual value guarantees turn the financing structures into balance sheet risk. Relying on a handful of leading labs works in both directions.
Bulls argue that signed multi-gigawatt demand and a 16 forward multiple outweigh the funding questions at this price. Fox's $715 target needs nearly everything to go right, so the consensus is the more realistic benchmark.
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