Cleveland Cavaliers guard James Harden goes to the basket against the Detroit Pistons. AP The No. 1 seed in the East is on the ropes … again. The Pistons fell at home in overtime to the Cavaliers in Game 5 and need to win Game 6 on the road in Cleveland to extend their second-round NBA playoff series.
There are two bits of good news for the Pistons. For one, they’ve been in this situation before, after they trailed 3-1 to the Magic in Round 1 and pulled off a stunning comeback to win the series in dramatic fashion. Second, the Cavaliers haven’t exactly looked unstoppable in any of their three victories, including the overtime win.
This series feels just as tight as it did at the start, and the odds reflect it. The Cavaliers are roughly 3.5-point favorites in Game 6, with the total sitting at 209.5.
The Cavaliers might have the series lead, but it feels like a stretch to say they’ve taken control. The Pistons were without Duncan Robinson, by far their best shooter, in Game 5 and still came within four points of beating the Cavs.
Cade Cunningham had very little help from his co-stars in the game: he scored 39 points, and the rest of the starters combined for 47 points. The lack of offensive options outside of Cunningham makes it much easier for the Cavaliers’ defense to withstand his incredible scoring outbursts.
Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons. Getty Images That said, the Cavs don’t resemble an offensive juggernaut either. Donovan Mitchell was strangely unassertive for the first three quarters, and James Harden was wildly inefficient in the fourth quarter and overtime.
The Cavaliers committed 17 turnovers, which led to 27 points for the Pistons. It’s the fourth time in five games in this series that they have committed at least 15 turnovers, and their only saving grace has been the fact that the Pistons have turned it over a ton as well.
This series has been a war of attrition. Both teams were coming off a seven-game series in Round 1, and legs are starting to look tired as these games wear on. Oddsmakers have dropped the total lower and lower with each passing game, from 217.5 in Game 1 to 209.5 for Game 6.
If the last play of Game 5 ended with a score — or free throws like the Pistons were arguing for postgame — that total would have been 210 points at most, but the game went into overtime tied at 103.
I think both teams will continue to struggle to score, especially down the stretch as the miles wear on. I’ll take the Under and get the best of the number at 210.5 on DraftKings.
The Pick: Under 210.5 (-112, DraftKings)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
