The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes take place on Friday at Laurel Park. AP Saturday’s Preakness Stakes headline the racing action at Laurel Park this weekend, but don’t sleep on Friday’s Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, which is setting up to be a fitting appetizer for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown.
No. 7 Jumping the Gun (3-1) is the morning-line favorite, but there is a decent chance that we see this number drift as we get closer to post-time. She’s never finished worse than third in her six-race career, but her last effort was the worst of the bunch, and she did it as a chalky favorite in the Weber City Miss Stakes, which took place on this track on April 18.
No. 10 My Miss Mo (7-2) seems to be the horse with the most momentum from the betting public, and could leapfrog Jumping the Gun on the betting board by the time the gate is loaded at Laurel Park. Most of her backers believe she’ll be able to get to the front of a pack that lacks pace, setting her up for the win.
No. 5 Braken Poppa (7-2) could also have plenty of support at the window thanks to a four-race winning streak, but there are questions about the quality of competition she’s faced in Louisiana.
The field does seem light on quality, which in theory should open up a window for a long shot, but the roughies in the Black-Eyed Susan do seem to leave a lot to be desired.
Let’s get to the picks for Friday’s headliner, which gets underway at 6:14 p.m. ET at Laurel Park.
There are a couple of ways to look at Jumping the Gun.
If you’re against her, you’re pointing to her disappointing effort in the Weber City Miss Stakes as an indicator that she’s taken a step back as a 3-year-old.
If you’re backing the favorite, you’re writing that clunker off as an outlier after a long layoff.
I’m leaning towards the latter, and looking at that result last month as a blessing in disguise. Without it, she would be the runaway favorite in this less-than-stellar field, but with that third-place finish fresh on everybody’s mind, we’re getting a discount on the best horse in this race.
Holly’s Holiday warming up ahead of the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images Sleeper: No. 3 Holly’s Holiday (6-1) If My Miss Mo, Braken Poppa, and Jumping the Gun suck up a lot of the value at the top, we could see Holly’s Holiday stick at 6-1 or lengthen, which is decent value against this field.
She looked out of her depth in two starts as a 2-year-old, but she took a serious step forward when she broke her maiden and then did it again in a head-turning victory at the Valley of the Vapors Stakes on April 18.
If she continues trending in that direction, you’ll be thrilled to have this price on your tickets.
This is more about the competition than anything else.
There is some quality in this field, but it’s not one for the record books, which means that you may want to include at least one of the super long shots on your tickets.
First, the price. We could see this number jump even higher as we get closer to post-time, and that kind of price is always worth at least a look in this kind of setup.
Second, it is her most recent effort in an allowance, but it was a massive improvement after a long layoff, and another step forward could make her interested in this field.
It’s asking a lot, but you’re always going to be doing that with a long shot like her.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
