The 2026 election is a “change” election in California.
But while Republicans are running to change California, Democrats are running to change Trump.
High gas prices? Blame Trump’s war in Iran — not California’s $2 premium over other states.
Health care woes? Blame Trump for “cutting Medicaid” (which is still growing, at a slower rate). Health care woes? Blame Trump for “cutting Medicaid” (which is still growing, at a slower rate).
Chaos in the streets? Blame Trump for ICE (which reduced crime, but clashed with left-wing activists).
Trump isn’t on the ballot, and is leaving anyway in after 2028 (all joking aside).
But Democrats want to impeach him, or at least stopping his agenda.
Which is a problem, because it means Democrats aren’t having a real discussion about California.
Our state is at a crossroads — and so is our largest city, Los Angeles.
High taxes, for example, are driving wealthy people out of the state.
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So politicians propose even higher taxes — and more of the wealthy leave, taking billions in revenue with them.
Regulations are killing businesses — and are enforced harshly, often with the backing of private lawsuits.
So companies escape California, and jobs go elsewhere.
The only regulations we don’t enforce are against homeless encampments, which are still everywhere.
We’ve taken the most beautiful state in America and made parts of it the ugliest.
We spend billions on homeless services that barely make a dent in the problem.
Meanwhile, we don’t spend enough on police or firefighters. We don’t do simple things, like keeping water in the reservoirs.
The LA wildfires were a natural disaster. But they were also a failure of governance, a wake-up call.
Will we listen, or hit the snooze button for the next four years?
Thankfully, and unexpectedly, this year’s election is actually an interesting one, at every level.
In LA, Spencer Pratt is offering spirited opposition to Mayor Karen Bass.
Pratt lost his Pacific Palisades home in the fires. But he has developed beyond a single-issue candidate, and his campaign ads are generating a lot of buzz online.
On the left, Nithya Raman is trying to carry the socialist banner that propelled Zohran Mamdani to power in New York.
Bass will probably fall short of the majority she needs on June 2 to avoid a November runoff.
But a new Emerson poll shows her with 30%, to 22% for Pratt and 19% for Raman. Bass is still in a strong position to win, because the unions still support her.
The unions are the strongest political force in California. Democrats depend on them to turn out the vote.
And the unions are sticking with Bass. They might even prefer a wounded incumbent they can control.
The LA County Federation of Labor is even quietly boosting Pratt. They think he will be easier to beat in a general election.
They may regret that — but Pratt is going to have to develop a ground game beyond the Sunset corridor.
Meanwhile, Bass is — belatedly — trying to do her job, even working with Trump.
The possibility of losing, however slim, has pushed her to act. Call it democracy at work.
In the governor’s race, the race is interesting because there are too many Democrats.
That means two Republicans, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, have a chance to finish first and second in the June 2 “jungle” primary: an all-Republican general election.
The unions, powerful as they are, can’t figure themselves out.
The SEIU, for instance, backed Eric Swalwell before he imploded over allegations of sexual assault.
Now it is endorsing two candidates — Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra. That just adds to the split.
Steyer is spending his fortune on a vanity campaign, even paying influencers to support him.
Becerra is emerging as the “frontrunner” — because Democrats need one, not because of anything he’s done.
Becerra was at the bottom of the pile until mid-April.
He was a mediocre congressman; he presided over a crime wave as California’s attorney general; and he lost track of housands of migrant children as HHS Secretary under Joe Biden.
Plus, his Sacramento cronies were just caught allegedly stealing from his old campaign account.
He had no money and barely qualified for the debates.
But in April, a Democrat consulting firm, Gudelunas Strategies, produced a poll that showed Becerra surging, and managed to get Politico to report it.
That was a signal to the rest of the media, which boosted Becerra to the top.
A new Emerson poll shows Becerra leading the field, with 19%. Hilton and Steyer are at 17% each.
Katie Porter, who led the race last year, blew up at a CBS News reporter. Today she is making ads with a “shopping cart” to regain lost ground.
The race is still a lottery. Both Republicans could move ahead. Or one. Or none.
In Washington, the “Obama bros” are publicly ripping Becerra.
It doesn’t matter. If he faces either Republican in the general election, he probably wins. Even against Hilton, who has run an effective, issues-oriented campaign.
That would mean four more years of the status quo in California.
At the national level, Democrats might not even take the House. They pushed too far in the gerrymandering fight. It backfired, giving Republicans more potential seats.
So the “change” election of 2026 could mean more of the same.
That is, unless more candidates start talking about real issues, and more voters start paying attention.
Joel Pollak is the opinion editor of the California Post.
